When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher.
Sunday 1PM Slate
PJ Walker o156.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): The public loves taking overs on prop bets. As somebody who takes a lot of unders, I can tell you that it's basically zero fun. If we are going to find value in an over, I'm not surprised it's on a backup QB who the public is less likely to back. The Panthers are 13 point dogs to the Bucs, which should lead to lots of passes. All projections that I'm seeing have Walker considerably higher than this number, essentially betting that Walker gets there on volume alone.
DJ Moore o4.5 receptions +102 (FanDuel): See above for volume argument. The Panthers also traded away Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, which should free up targets for Moore.
Russell Gage o3.5 receptions +140 (FanDuel): Gage operates as the #3 receiver on the Bucs. He's projected right at 3.5 receptions and we're getting +140 odds against a bad Panthers secondary. I do not need further convincing.
Jared Goff u247.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Nobody is going to want to take this under - Goff has gone over this number in 3/5 games and any game involving the Lions tends to be high scoring. This game against the Cowboys, with a total of 49, projects to be no different. However, projections are consistently lower than this number. Goff has struggled throughout his career under pressure relative to his peers, and given the matchup against the Micah Parsons/Demarcus Lawrence, I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle here. This is a slight double down on our model which prefers the Cowboys -7.0.
Amon Ra St. Brown u75.5 receiving yards -125 (PointBet): Yes, I'm taking another Lions player to go under. Naturally, this bet is correlated with Goff's under, but I see value on both. Feel free to only take one if you don't want to be over exposed. St. Brown is consistently projected under this number.
Curtis Samuel u47.5 receiving yards -115 (Caesars): Samuel's Commanders are starting a backup QB against an elite Packers pass defense (9th in DVOA) and projections are right at or higher than this number. Take the under.
Christian Kirk u4.5 receptions +126 (Caesars): It's a solid matchup for Kirk against the Giants defense, but he's projected right at 4.5. I'm not turning down those dog odds.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Josh Jacobs o15.5 receiving yards -130 (PointBet): The Raiders will be without TE Darren Waller (hamstring) which will free up targets for Jacobs. Jacobs has 30 or more yards in the last 3 games, and is up against a Texans team that plays a lot of cover 2, thus leaving the short area of the field open for running back dump offs.
Sunday Night Football
Tyreek Hill o6.5 receptions +102 (FanDuel): Hill gets his quarterback back in a matchup against a Steelers defense that has several players just coming back from injury and isn't equipped to stop him even when healthy.
Diontae Johnson o5.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): Johnson has 7 or more targets in 4/6 games, and double digit targets in 3/6 games. The Dolphins secondary is very banged up and ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA. They are also 7 point underdogs, which should lead to plenty of passing. Most projections have Johnson right at 5.5 receptions. Take the dog odds on the over.