Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
New Orleans (+1.5) @ Arizona
Line closed: ARI -2.5, line moved away from the model
The Cardinals offense finally found life, jumping out to a 28-14 lead at the half. DeAndre Hopkins looked like he hadn't missed a beat, catching 10 balls for 103 yards. Murray attempted 28 passes, and 14 of them went to Hopkins's way. On the ground, Eno Benjamin averaged 7.7 yards per attempt on 12 carries. The Saints offense did their part, but there was no catching Arizona.
Final score: Arizona 42, New Orleans 34
Detroit @ Dallas (-7.0)
Line closed: DAL -7.0, line stayed the same
Things haven't been going great for us, but we continue to at least have success betting on the Cowboys. Predictably, Dallas was able to pressure Goff, who threw two interceptions which the Cowboys were able to parlay into touchdowns. Prescott was decent enough in his return, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and completing 76% of his passes. The Cowboys ground game was also able to eat clock, collectively gaining 139 yards on 31 attempts (4.5 average). In the end, the turnovers kept Detroit out of the game.
Final score: Dallas 24, Detroit 6
Kansas City @ San Francisco (+3.0)
Line closed: KC -1, line moved toward the model
This one was closer then the final score indicated, with the 49ers trailing 28-23 early in the 4th quarterback. The result of the 4th quarter drives went as follows: KC touchdown, SF safety, KC touchdown, SF fumble, KC punt, SF interception. Ball game.
Pat Mahomes threw for 423 yards on 34 attempts (12.4 average), completing 73.5% of his passes. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling each had 100 yard games, while Travis Kelce finished with 98. In the end, San Francisco wasn't able to keep up.
Final score: Kansas City 44, San Francisco 23
Pittsburgh (+7.0) @ Miami
Line closed: MIA -7.5, line moved away from the model.
Sweat city, population us. Miami led 16-10 for literally the entire second half. Neither team scored a single point. Pittsburgh had a decent drive going toward the end of the 4th, but Kenny Pickett threw a bad pass to Diontae Johnson that was intercepted at the Miami 18 by Jevon Holland, who took the ball to the Pittsburgh 44. Luckily for us, Miami went 3 and out on their next drive. Pickett had another interception on his final drive of the game, but Miami was able to take knees to secure the win.
Final score: Miami 16, Pittsburgh 10
Chicago @ New England (-8.0)
Line closed: NE -8.5, line moved toward the model.
QB controversy, Justin Fields suddenly being good, the Pats elite offensive line being unable to block a non-existent Bears pass rush. We lost. Let's not talk about it.
Final score: Chicago 33, New England 14
Sides recap: This was another losing week for us. The bootstrap analysis still has us +ROI. We aren't concerned, but this hasn't been fun. We did at least have a small win on props.
Zach Ertz u45.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Ertz predictably struggled against the Saints defense, who have been excellent against tight ends this season. He finished with 2 catches for 21 yards. WIN +1 unit
PJ Walker o156.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Part of the logic behind this bet was the Panthers would be trailing, thus forcing Walker to throw and getting him to his over on volume alone. The Panthers ended up winning 21-3, and Walker still hit his over. That lets you know how bad this line was. Walker had 177 yards on 22 attempts. WIN +1 unit
DJ Moore o4.5 receptions +102 (FanDuel): Moore had an excellent game, catching 7 balls for 69 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Russell Gage o3.5 receptions +140 (FanDuel): Gage caught 4 balls for 39 yards. WIN +1.4 units
Jared Goff u247.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Goff finished with 228 yards. WIN +1 unit
Amon Ra St. Brown u75.5 receiving yards -125 (PointBet): Amon Ra got injured. He had 1 catch for 4 yards. WIN +1 unit
Curtis Samuel u47.5 receiving yards -115 (Caesars): Samuel had 53 receiving yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Christian Kirk u4.5 receptions +126 (Caesars): Kirk caught 7 balls for 96 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Josh Jacobs o15.5 receiving yards -130 (PointBet): I am stunned this one didn't hit. Jacobs was too busy on the ground, where he had 143 rushing yards on 20 attempts. He caught 3 passes, but had only 12 yards. LOSS -1.3 units
Tyreek Hill o6.5 receptions +102 (FanDuel): Hill had 7 catches for 72 yards. WIN +1.02 nits
Diontae Johnson o5.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): Diontae had 5 catches. Close, but no cigar. LOSS -1 unit
Props results: 6-5 +0.97 units
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Season total: 18-23-1
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Season total: 36-36, -0.4 units