My prop bet card for week 7 is below. This is a data driven process with manual review. If you're curious about how the model works, read this article.
Some non-actionable thoughts:
-I fist bumped to nobody at all when I saw the model called for us to fade Bo Nix again. This is our 4th week in a row taking his passing yardage under, and we haven't lost yet. Let's see how far we can take this.
-We are, yet again, picking on Deshaun Watson, taking both his passing and rushing under. The model doesn't have morals, thoughts, or feelings, but let's pretend like it does.
-We're taking Marvin Harrison Jr's under, who was eased into action in his first game in Houston, running a route on just 10 of 40 dropbacks. You would assume his playing time would increase, especially since Houston gave up a 2nd rounder for him, but it's also worth noting that Tank Dell is expected to return. There's a lot of mouths to feed in Houston.
-We're in on 5 different unders in the 49ers/Falcons game. The total is 49.5, so we'll see plenty of points. It makes sense that the public would prefer betting overs in these games.
-It's never fun betting against Brock Bowers, especially with Trent McDuffie (quad) banged up. The Rams don't typically shadow, but at the very least Jaylen Watson (6'2 197) has decent size for a corner.
-I love Darnell Washington and am mad we're betting against him.
