First and Thirty’s Week 7 Power Ratings: Where the Market, PFF, FPI, and DVOA Agree — and Where They Don’t

The 49ers offense: 2nd in EPA/play, 1st in success rate, 3rd in points per drive, 1st in third down conversion rate, 1st in red zone conversion rate. Mike Evans may not have an Achilles by the end of the year and looks like he can barely break 4.7 in the 40, but dammit can he still play football. Meanwhile, the defense is 8th in EPA/play.

The four sources span 3.95 points, from DAVE at the high end to Market at the low end.

The Chiefs didn't play last week and moved up 3 spots in the power rankings. Not bad. According to EPA/play, they are 5th on offense and 3rd on defense. We'll have to keep an eye on Rashee Rice, who injured his hamstring prior to the bye and isn't practicing.

All four sources are within 1.12 points.

If you read the 49ers blurb and were wondering which offense is 1st in EPA/play, it's the Bills. They're also 1st in: explosive play rate, points per drive, and series conversion rate. The defense has been garbage, though.

Market is the low outlier on the Bills; the other three sources are within 0.69 points.

Despite their 2–4 record and mounting injuries (Adams/Turner/Ford/Garrett), the Rams continue to be labeled an elite team. Betting markets continue to value Los Angeles as an elite team, with their latest spread implying a 5.5-point advantage over Las Vegas on a neutral field. Our model also incorporates previous weeks' market expectations, which have consistently rated the Rams highly. The market still believes in the Rams, even if their record doesn't reflect it. PFF still has them at 1, which does feel absurd, but it's clearly not too crazy.

The four sources span 2.73 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

The Seahawks offense: 23rd in EPA/play, 18th in success rate, 17th in points per drive. The market is clearly bullish on the Seahawks, ultimately believing that Sam Darnold will turn it around. Darnold currently have a negative EPA/dropback, a 60.4% completion rate, 7 TDs, and 7 picks. It doesn't help that he's under pressure on 41.1% of dropbacks, 7th highest in the league. The defense fucks tho (2nd in EPA/play, 3rd in success rate).

The widest gap between sources is 1.95 points.

Travis Hunter caught 4 passes on 4 targets despite only running 7 routes. With Brian Thomas Jr deep in the dog house, we'll see if he gets more opportunities. The Jags offense is 4th in EPA/play and the defense is 9th.

All four sources are within 1.01 points.

The Texans defense is 20th in EPA/play allowed, which is still far worse than I'd expect. Positive regression coming. The offense, provided their receivers can stay healthy, is formidable.

The widest gap between sources is 1.96 points.

The offense is 14th in EPA/play, but with Caleb Williams on the field, CHI gains +0.195 EPA/play and +0.6% success rate. The defense is a respectable 12th in EPA/play allowed, but 28th in explosive play rate.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Bears; the other three sources are within 0.53 points.

The Pats lost Alijah Vera-Tucker to a hamstring injury and backup G Ben Brown to a knee injury. Brown was filling in for Mike Onwenu, who is already out for the season with an ankle injury. The good news is first round pick Caleb Lomu was played well at tackle whenever he's needed to fill in, and Carlton Davis (neck) could return Thursday against the Bears. The offense is 13th in EPA/play, but clearly heading in the right direction. The defense is 15th, but getting healthier.

The widest gap between sources is 1.52 points.

The Lions are coming off a bye. By EPA/play, the offense is 3rd and the defense is thirty fucking first. The biggest issue is the secondary, but help is on the way as Brian Branch looks set to return following an Achilles tear last December.

All four sources are within 0.54 points.

Lamar Jackson's (ankle) status for week 7 is still uncertain, as is there position in the power rankings. They lost 13-10 to the Browns last week. Their spot at 11 is basically splitting the difference between a Jackson led Ravens (better than 11) and a Huntley led Ravens (worse than 11). The defense is 13th in EPA/play allowed.

The four sources span 3.95 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

The Bengals defense is 17th in EPA/play, and their weaknesses are clear. They rank dead last in explosive play rate allowed, 29th in third down conversion rate, and 30th in missed tackle rate. The defensive line is doing it's job - ranking 11th in pressure rate despite being 31st in blitz rate. The offense is 9th in EPA/play.

PFF is the low outlier on the Bengals; the other three sources are within 0.23 points.

We're making fun of Bo Nix's aDOT, but did you know it's actually slightly higher than Caleb Williams's (5.98 vs 5.86). The difference, of course, is that Bo Nix has sucked ass this year and Williams hasn't. Denver's offense is: 26th in EPA/play, dead last in success rate, 31st in explosive play rate, and 28th in points per drive. The defense is 11th in EPA/play, but they'll end the season better than that.

All four sources are within 1.23 points.

The Vikings had a bye last week, and they're back to terrorize offense. This week they're taking on the recently-fired-their-GM Colts, who are 2-4. The offense is 25th in EPA/play, the defense is 1st in a lot of different stats.

All four sources are within 1.26 points.

The Cowboys didn't do enough against Green Bay to get out of the basement for their EPA/play allowed ranking - they're still dead last. The offense is 8th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate.

The four sources span 2.73 points, from FPI at the high end to PFF at the low end.

Jordan Love is under pressure on 32.5% of dropbacks despite a lightning-quick 2.44 time to throw. They made Rashan Gary look like prime Rashan Gary. By EPA/play, they are 19th in offense and 6th on defense.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Packers; the other three sources are within 0.65 points.

By EPA/play: 24th on offense, 5th on defense. Sometimes things just make sense.

All four sources are within 1.48 points.

The offense: 6th in EPA/play, 4th in explosive play rate, and 8th in points per drive. With Jalen Coker back, Bryce Young has a fantastic 1-2 punch to work with. It's helpful that Young is also doing an excellent job keeping the ball out of harms way, supporting a 1% turnover worthy play rate and just 2 picks. The defense is 18th in EPA/play, but 8th in success rate. Their issue is in the red zone, where they rank 30th in red zone conversion rate.

All four sources are within 0.63 points.

Fired their GM. Not ideal. By EPA/play: 22nd on offense and 23rd on defense. Perhaps their ranking of 19 is too generous.

The widest gap between sources is 2.46 points.

The defense: 4th in EPA/play, 6th in success rate, and 13th in explosive play rate despite being 29th in missed tackle rate. Their problem? A rookie UDFA is their quarterback.

The four sources span 3.60 points, from DAVE at the high end to FPI at the low end.

With Michael Penix on the field, ATL gains +0.526 EPA/play and +10.2% success rate. I am still stunned by their defensive line, which is 26th in blitz rate but 3rd in pressure rate.

The four sources span 3.05 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

The defense: 25th in EPA/play allowed, 24th in success rate allowed, 30th in explosive play rate allowed. This is despite being 1st in turnovers, which can be quite noisy. Mendoza isn't saving this team.

All four sources are within 0.86 points.

It may surprise you that the Commanders are 15th in EPA/play, but they are 23rd in success rate and 24th in points per drive. Jayden Daniels has a 1.3% turnover worthy play rate, and that alone is massively helping the offense.

All four sources are within 1.16 points.

By EPA/play: dead last on offense and 16th on defense. Nobody is suggesting this is a good football team, but three of our four models see them as closer to below average than truly bottom-of-the-league bad. It's obvious to any ball-knower that the offense simply isn't this bad.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Chargers; the other three sources are within 0.93 points.

Without Jalen Hurts (blood clots), Cam Jurgens (traded), and Lane Johnson (retired), this team should look to 2027.

DAVE is the high outlier on the Eagles; the other three sources are within 0.56 points.

The defense is still playing well - 7th in EPA/play allowed and 16th in success rate. Omar Cooper Jr returned from injury last week and caught 6 passes on 7 targets for 103 receiving yards and 1 touchdown.

The widest gap between sources is 2.24 points.

You have to feel for the city of Cleveland - Julian Saying was injured, the Guardians are eliminated, and the Browns are the Browns. The defense is, at the very least, playing well - 10th in EPA/play allowed, 5th in success rate, and 6th in explosive play rate. They're struggling on allowing explosive plays (24th) and with missed tackles (also 24th). The offense sucks ass.

Market is the high outlier on the Browns; the other three sources are within 0.91 points.

The defense is bottom 5 in any stat worth giving a shit about. The offense is clearly a quarterback away from being legit, but there's still major issues with this football team.

The four sources span 4.03 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.

See above: the defense is an issue. Tyler Shough looks solid, he just needs someone other than Chris Olave to throw the ball too. It sounds like week 9 is best case scenario for Jordyn Tyson.

The four sources span 2.74 points, from FPI at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

Jameis benched, I'm stunned. Cam Skattebo was also benched, which is just bad coaching - with Skattebo on the field, NYG gains +0.132 EPA/play and +2.9% success rate — the run game jumps most (+0.270 EPA/run).

PFF is the high outlier on the Giants; the other three sources are within 0.71 points.

By EPA/play: the offense is 31st and the defense is 22nd. Carnell Tate looks legit, though.

All four sources are within 0.52 points.

By EPA/play: the offense is 27th and the defense is 28th. Surprise, surprise, the team with very few actual NFL players is struggling.

The four sources span 3.38 points, from Market at the high end to PFF at the low end.