My prop bet card for week 8 is below. This is a data driven process with manual review. If you're curious about how the model works, read this article.
Some non-actionable thoughts:
-Only 10 plays this week, which is fewer than normal. That could be the market getting sharper, bye weeks, because I ran this 3 hours later than normal (probably not), completely random, or some other explanation I haven't thought of.
-We are on Bo Nix's passing under for a 5th straight week. Fuck yes. The 4 frozen source-specific Under probabilities were 4for4 56.83%, FantasyPros 58.06%, FTN 57.56%, PFF 55.39%. -114 means we want anything better than 53.27% - all 4 wanted the under.
-On Kyler Murray (under 224.5 passing yards) - get this one in early, as it's classic line shopping. 224.5 is 5.5 yards more favorable for this Under than the 219 median across 6 sportsbook main lines. BetOnline offered Under 219.5 at -112, versus -114 at FanDuel.
-The only person we're fading more than Bo Nix is Deshaun Watson. Picking on certain players continues to be a trend of the model.
-Lamar Jackson is set to return in the BUF/BAL game. Anecdotally, I hate taking Josh Allen's unders in these games as Buffalo routinely asks him to be a hero - especially considering how horrendous Buffalo's defense has been this year. That said, we don't bet on anecdotes.
-You're welcome for making TNF actually watchable.
