The model went live for week 8 earlier in the week.
You may have noticed some changes. Notably, the model shifted from predicting realized spreads directly via DVOA to instead using de-vigged Pinnacle lines to estimate fair betting odds. The goal is to identify potentially mispriced spreads, moneylines, and totals at major Massachusetts sportsbooks and determine whether wagers placed midweek consistently beat the closing line. Rather than evaluating the model based on its ability to predict game results, this version will focus on closing line value (CLV) as its primary measure of success, using actual wagers and recorded odds to evaluate performance over time.
This means, going forward, we'll be recommending moneylines, spreads, and/or totals. For week 8, we only found moneylines with value.
Arizona Cardinals +265 (FanDuel)
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Game: Sunday, November 1 — 1:00 PM ET
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Recommended Moneyline: +265
Estimated Fair Win Probability: 28.14%
Wager Placed: October 27, 2026 — 8:58 PM ET
Detroit Lions -168 (FanDuel)
Matchup: Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Game: Sunday, November 1 — 1:00 PM ET
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Recommended Moneyline: -168
Estimated Fair Win Probability: 63.10%
Wager Placed: October 28, 2026 — 5:22 PM ET
Washington Commanders -230 (DraftKings)
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Game: Sunday, November 1 — 8:20 PM ET
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Recommended Moneyline: -230
Estimated Fair Win Probability: 70.07%
Wager Placed: October 28, 2026 — 5:22 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams -285 (DraftKings)
Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams
Game: Sunday, November 1 — 4:05 PM ET
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Recommended Moneyline: -285
Estimated Fair Win Probability: 74.29%
Wager Placed: October 28, 2026 — 5:34 PM ET
