Houston @ Baltimore (+9.0)
Power rankings: Houston 12, Baltimore 2
When Houston has the ball: The Texans offense is 14th in DVOA and 15th in EPA/play. CJ Stroud's start to his NFL career has been well documented - the favorite to win offensive rookie of the year is 13th in PFF grades and 15th in ESPN's QBR metric. Stroud is 3rd in yards per attempt, 19th in big-time-throw rate, 19th in turnover worthy play rate, and 24th in adjusted completion percentage. Stroud's deep passing game (throws that travel 20+ yards down field) has been a noticeable strength - his 99.2 PFF grade is 2nd on such throws, and he has only a single turnover worthy play across 61 attempts. The Texans offensive line is medicore, with strengths at LT (Laremy Tunsil) and RG (Shaq Mason). They struggle at the LG (Juice Scruggs) and C (Juice Scruggs) positions. The skill positions took a giant step back when they lost rookie WR Tank Dell, but Nico Collins has entered elite WR terriroty, currently the 3rd best in the game by PFF grades. TE Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, and Robert Woods have also been decent complimentary options. The Texans have been far better at passing (10th in DVOA) than running (30th). Part of the problem with the run game is the offensive line that ranks 25th in run stop win rate.
The Ravens defense is 1st in DVOA and 2nd in EPA/play. They've been better against the pass (1st in DVOA) than the run (7th). That starts up front, with the offensive line ranking 9th in pass rush win rate and 24th in run stop win rate. They have a slew of pass rushers that can win, including DE Jadeveon Clowney (71 pressures), DT Justin Madubuike (64), and DE Odafe Oweh (51). They also have the best 1-2 tandem at linebacker (Raquon Smith and Patrick Queen) and a strong safety combination (Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams). Their cornerback room took a big hit by losing Marlon Humphrey to a calf injury, who will miss Saturday's game. In nickel packages, Hamilton will cover the slot with Brandon Stephens and Ronald Darby on the outside, which brings in Geno Stone to play safety. Even without Humphrey, there truly isn't a weakness on this defense to attack, but the Ravens certainly do not have a corner capable of matching up with Collins 1 on 1. Their 12th in DVOA against number 1 receivers, which is easily their lowest ranking. That said, they're number 1 in DVOA against the deep ball.
When the Ravens have the ball:
The Ravens offense is 4th in DVOA and 6th in EPA/play. They have a strong offensive line, several options at receiver, and the front-runner for MVP at quarterback, who can win with both his arm and legs. Lamar Jackson is currently 2nd in PFF grades and 4th in ESPN's QBR. Jackson's time to throw of 3.17 seconds is slowest only to Justin Fields, and his deep ball rate of 13.1% is 10th highest in the league. Despite his, he's under pressure just 19th most often (36.5%) and has the best PFF grade when under pressure this season. It looked like the Ravens receiving group was going to get a big boost when Mark Andrews (ankle) practiced in full this week, but reports have come in that he's unlikely to play. Even without Andrews, the Ravens passing attack has remained fierce - ranking 5th in DVOA. Their rushing attack is the best in football, ranking 1st.
The Texans defense is 16th in DVOA, playing far better against the run (2nd in DVOA) than the pass (23rd). Their defensive line has been spectacular, ranking 3rd in pass rush win rate and 2nd in run stop win rate. They blitz 29th most often, but they're still generating pressure at a 30.1% clip, 10th best in the league. Like Baltimore, they have a number of pass rushers who are capable of winning one on one - including rookie DE Will Anderson (65 pressures), DE Johnathan Greenard (52), DT Maliek Collins (47), DT Sheldon Rankins (40), and DE Derek Barnett (22). Barnett's pressure numbers are low, but this is largely due to essentially not playing during his stint with the Eagles. After being released by Philly, he signed with Houston on November 27th, and he's since been arguably their best lineman, high praise given how well Anderson has played. Barnett's 20% pass rush win rate is easily the best on the team, and he has 17 pressures in his last 4 games, including 4 against Cleveland last week. Houston also has a strong cornerback room (Derek Stingley Jr, Steven Nelson, and slot man Desmond King) and a do-it-all linebacker (Blake Cashman), but have struggled at every other position. The Texans need to win in the trenches and cover well to keep pace with the Ravens. Avoiding big plays and keeping Jackson contained will be key.