Recommended Wager: NY Jets (+7.0) over Tennessee

With a strength of 4.03, we'll take a single unit on the god damn Jets

· NY Jets,Tennessee,Brady,Week 4 2021

Oh Tennesee, we're even going to fade you when you play the Jets, who I ranked dead last in our power rankings. The Titans sit a top the AFC South at 2-1. They've grabbed back to back wins over Seattle and Indianapolis after getting smoked by Arizona week 1. Ryan Tannehill is off to a hot start -- ranking 6th overall in PFF passing grades, he's completing 64.7% of his passes (1.4% below expectation) while gaining 7.4 yards per attempt. His two top receiving options were both injured last week -- AJ Brown (hamstring) and Julio Jones (hamstring) both did not practice Wednesday and Thursday. If neither can go, I might as well be out there catching passes for the Titans. The offensive line is still underperforming to my expectations, though it hasn't stopped Derrick Henry from gaining 4.4 yards per attempt, 3.56 of which have come after contact.  The defense finally bounced back last week after allowing 30+ point performances the first two weeks, although it was against Carson Wentz and his zero ankles. Bud Depree, who missed last week with a knee injury, went DNP/DNP to start the week and seems unlikely to play. Harold Landry (20 pressures) and Denico Autry (14) have been the top pass rushers on the line, while Jeffrey Simmons (only 7) has been a massive disappointment considering how dominant he typically is. Rookie CB Caleb Farley (shoulder) looks like he's going to miss his second straight game. Kristian Fulton is at least playing solid corner, but Jackrabbit Jenkins has a passing grade allowed of 107.2. Kevan Byard, as always, will provide a strong presence at safety.

Onto the 0-3 Jets, who have put up 14, 6, and 0 points in their first 3 games. Zach Wilson is tied for 2nd in the league with 6 turnover worthy throws (fellow rookie Trevor Lawrence is first with 9). He's completing 55.2% of his passes, which is 8.6% (!!!) below expectation and worst in the league while gaining 6.2 yards per attempt and an vomit-inducing 2:7 TD:INT ratio. It's that bad. Although we knew going into the year that C/RG would be weaknesses for the Jets, LT Mekhi Becton injuring his knee and rookie LG Alijah Vera-Tucker's slow start (62.5 PFF grade) has turned the line into a problem. Corey Davis and Jameson Crowder could be at least a serviceable 1-2 punch at receiver, but they need better play from the QB before they can get going. The strength (if you can call it that) of the defense is along the line, with Bryce Huff, John Franklin-Myers, and Folorunso Fatukasi off to solid starts. Both outsider corners (Brandin Echols and Bryce Hall) have both been beaten consistently, though slot corner Michael Carter is holding QBs to a 77.1 rating when targeted. The defensive backfield took a further hit after Lamarcus Joyner injured his elbow 9 snaps into week 1.