Tennessee @ Green Bay
Power rankings: Tennessee 14, Green Bay 15
Spread update: This line moved away from the model. Green Bay is now 3.5 point favorites.
Keys to the game: Most by now know the story behind the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB, but his lack of receiving weapons has led to a pedestrian passing attack, with the Packers ranking 15th in offensive passing DVOA. They are also going to be without rookie WR Romeo Doubs (ankle). Due to an impressive offensive line and elite running back combination (Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon), they are far more potent in the run game where they rank 6th in DVOA. These a few things that work out well for the Titans defense. For starters, their run defense is the best in the league based on DVOA. Their pass rush is also led by Jeffery Simmons, who lines up along the interior where the Packers line has issues. Simmons is technically questionable with an ankle injury that caused him to miss last week, but he is expected to play. Denico Autry, another elite pass rusher, typically lines up over the right tackle where he'll avoid the strength of the Packers line -- LT David Bakhtiari. The injury to DE Bud Depree (hip) isn't a concern -- Depree may be a big name, but he's never been nearly as good as people think and is just 6th on the Titans in pressures. The Titans are 6th in pressure rate despite rarely blitzing, expect the battle in the trenches to be a fun one. The weakness of the Titans defense is their corners, but that perfectly matches up with the Packers weakness as well. FS Kevin Byard and SS Andrew Adams is an elite safety tandem and gives some aid to the struggling cornerback room.
The Titans are a middle of the road offense. Their offensive line is one of the worst in football and without C Ben Jones (concussion). RG Nate Davis and Jones are the only quality starters, which will leave the Titans with 4/5 weaknesses along the line. That would be a much bigger issue if Packers DE Rashad Gary didn't tear his ACL, but they still have DT Kenny Clark and DE Preston Smith who should be able to take advantage of the situation. The Packers are also dealing with injuries to LB De'Vondre Campbell (knee) and CB Eric Stokes (ankle). Green Bay still has two solid corners in Jaire Alexander and Rasual Douglas, which should be enough to slow down the pedestrian combination of Robert Woods and Treylon Burks. Slot receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine stepped up in a major way last week, grabbing 5 catches on 7 targets for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. Without Stokes, Douglas moves to an outside role and 2019 UDFA Keisean Nixon has been starting in the slot, which is easily the biggest weakness in the Packers secondary. Green Bay's defense has been much better against the pass (8th in DVOA) than the run (30th). As long as Derrick Henry can find some room to run, he could be a difference maker.
AJ Dillon u40.5 rushing yards -130 (PointBet): As mentioned above, the Titans have the best run defense in the NFL. Dillon is clearly the #2 back behind Aaron Jones (who is been far better this season). This number is consistently higher than projections.
Ryan Tannehill o181.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): This number is simply too low. Tannehill is consistently projected over 200 yards.