Las Vegas @ Denver (-2.5)
Power rankings: Las Vegas 27, Denver 18
Strength: 2.445
Spread update: This line is sticking at 2.5.
Keys to the game: The Broncos defense is legit, ranking 4th in DVOA and 2nd in EPA/play. They'll have a stead advantage in the trenches against a bottom-tier Raiders offensive line. Denver traded away Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory (knee) is on IR, but they'll return Baron Browning (hip) and have several other players along the defensive line that can win, including interior rushers Dre'Mont Jones and DJ Jones. Denver is also one of the more blitz heavy teams in the league. In short, Carr will be under pressure often. The Raiders are without TE Darren Waller (hamstring) and WR Hunter Renfrow (ribs/hamstring), leaving DeVante Adams and Mack Hollins as the only two established receivers. That works out well for Denver -- CB Patrick Surtain is playing at elite levels, but their other corners have been poor. Given that they only have to focus on Adams, they should be ok. On the ground, the Raiders are far better (they're 7th in DVOA on the ground vs 20th in the pass), which does matchup well against Denver. The Broncos are 3rd in defensive DVOA defending the pass but 20th against the run.
The Broncos have plummeted to 31st in offensive DVOA (28th in EPA/play) due to a combination of injuries (star LT Garrett Boles is on IR with Javonte Williams and WRs Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler are all out) and poor play from Russ Wilson. They're left with a below-average offensive line and receiving weapons that feature Courtland Sutton, former COVID-19 emergency QB Kendall Hinton, and rookie TE Greg Dulcich. The good news is the Raiders are the worst passing defense in the league by DVOA and are 24th best against the run. The Broncos offensive line should hold up fine -- Maxx Crosby is an elite pass rusher who will routinely win, but the Raiders pass rush as a whole generates pressure 29th most frequently in the league. The secondary is also bottom-tier, which should give Courtland Sutton plenty of opportunities to win.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (+4.5)
Power rankings: Cincinnati 6, Pittsburgh 17
Strength: 2.05
Spread update: This line moved toward the model. Cincinnati is now just 3.5 point favorites.
Keys to the game: The Bengals offense is elite (8th in DVOA and 5th in EPA/play), but there's some reasons for optimism for Steelers fans. For starters, the Bengals are without Ja'Marr Chase (hip). Cincy still has two capable of receiving options in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but the Steelers secondary is underrated - Cam Sutton and Levi Wallace is a respectable combination at corner and Minkah Fitzpatrick/Terrell Edmonds is an elite safety tandem. The Bengals also have had issues along the offensive line, and even though the Steelers have been horrid at getting to the passer (they're 30th in pressure rate), they've been doing it without TJ Watt. Watt returned last week to play his normal starting role, and now should be fairly close to 100%. He'll have an advantage of RT La'el Collins who is having a horrendous year despite his successful career. On the inside, Cam Hayward is an elite pass rusher going up against a bad LG in Cordell Volson.
It's not a great matchup on paper for the Steelers offense -- they're 22nd in offensive DVOA against a Bengals defense that ranks 10th. There's still plenty of growing pains with rookie QB Kenny Pickett, who is left with a below-average offensive line and a good-but-not-great group of receivers (especially with Chase Claypool now playing for Chicago. The battle in the trenches could get ugly -- both Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are strong along the edge, and it appears elite DT DJ Reader is coming off of IR. The Bengals secondary did take a big hit with Chidobe Awuzie tearing his ACL, leaving Mike Hinton as the lone cornerback who isn't #bad (sorry Eli Apple fans). Von Bell and Jessie Bates is a solid safety tandem, but I'm still taking the receiving weapons of Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and TE Pat Freiermuth. On the ground, Najee Harris is a solid back, but he won't have much running room given the mismatch in the trenches.
San Francisco @ Arizona (+8.0)
Power rankings: San Francisco 9, Arizona 25
Strength: 2.52
Spread update: The line has moved up to 8.5.
Keys to the game: The 49ers offense is 14th in DVOA and 11th in EPA/play. Defensively, the Cardinals are below-average. They'll attempt to win with a blitz-heavy scheme (they blitz 3rd most in the league), which has allowed them to generate pressure 24.4% of the time (7th most). The Cardinals could do well along the interior -- the strength of the 49ers offensive line is with their tackles, while Arizona has two above-average interior pass rushers (Zach Allen and JJ Watt). Things could fall apart in the secondary -- S Budda Baker is the one player who contributes in a positive way, while the 49ers have a slew of weapons who excel both at getting open and gaining yards after the catch (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Ayiuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey). On the ground, McCaffrey and Eli Mitchell will be running against a Cardinals run defense that ranks 16th in DVOA. This all comes down to the degree in which the 49ers receivers can exploit the Cardinals secondary.
First and foremost, we project Kyler Murray (hamstring) to return after missing last week. He's technically questionable, but he was limited in practice all week. The 49ers pass rush will be without DT Arik Armstead (foot/ankle), which leaves Nick Bosa as the lone competent pass rusher. In a normal week, Bosa lines up over the right tackle, where he would face off against RT Kelvin Beachum. Beachum is an above-average pass blocking tackle, so the 49ers could consider switching Bosa to the other side where he'll face backup LT Josh Jones (D.J. Humphries is out with a back injury). Injuries to the 49ers secondary have led to Charvarius Ward as being the lone competent corner, but Talanoa Hufanga/Tashaun Gipson Sr. is an excellent safety tandem. For the Cardinals pass catchers, they're without TE Zach Ertz (knee), but still have a solid receiving duo between DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore. They should be able to have some success in getting their receivers open. On the ground, the Cardinals are 27th in rushing offense DVOA against the 49ers defense that is 3rd in rushing defense DVOA. I wouldn't expect much for James Conner.