First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

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FIRST AND THIRTY

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Prop Bets: Week 11

· Brady,Prop Bets,Week 11 2022

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Marcus Mariota o168.5 passing yards -125 (BetMGM)

Baker Mayfield o168.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM)

Davis Mills o219.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings)

David Montgomery u70.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet)

Miles Sanders o59.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings)

Justice Hill u29.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM)

Jonathan Taylor u87.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM)

Amon Ra-St. Brown u77.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings)

Allen Robinson o4.5 receptions +130 (BetMGM)

Sunday Night Football

Marquez Valdes-Scantling o44.5 receiving yards -113 (FanDuel)

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Recommended Wager: Week 11 (Part 3)
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Week 11 Recap: Ouch Town, Population Us
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