DomModel is officially live for Week 1. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its projected spread differs meaningfully from the market. From there, I review each qualifying game and decide whether the model's edge is enough to warrant an actual FirstAndThirty recommendation. This blog focuses on games where the model gave a bet strength of 1.0 or better.
Week 1 Model Plays
DomModel identified seven potential plays this week. A model "BET" is not automatically a FirstAndThirty bet. Injuries, venue, weather, line movement and other factors can give us a reason to pass.
❌ PASS — SEAHAWKS -3.5
Patriots @ Seahawks
Model Strength: 1.4
The model likes Seattle here, but we're staying away.
The biggest issue is the hook. DomModel does not account for hooks, and laying -3.5 instead of -3 is a meaningful difference in an NFL spread. You can find some 3-point spread, but the vig is too much for my liking.
❌ PASS — RAMS -3.5
49ers @ Rams
Model Strength: 1.6
The model assumes the Rams are home here, but the game is actually being played in Australia, which means the model is giving an undeserved homefield advantage to the Rams. We also have the same hook issue as before, and Aaron Donald isn't playing.
✅ BET — LIONS -6.5
Saints @ Lions
Model Strength: 1.7
The best price I found was at FanDuel, -6.5 -122. It's a steep price, but I'm ok with it given the hook and the model's confidence in the bet. The Saints sit at 26 on the FAT Power Ratings while the Lions are 8th.
✅ BET — TEXANS +1.5
Bills @ Texans
Model Strength: 1.3
The Texans projected DVOA is actually slightly higher than the Bills (13.2% vs 12.7%). We still have the Bills as the better team, but don't forget how dominant Houston's defense can be.
🔥 BET — COLTS +3.5
Ravens @ Colts
Model Strength: 2.3 — Strongest Play
I'm seeing this one consistently at 3.5 across all books, but some are charging -120. Make sure you get it at -110.
✅ BET — JAGUARS -8.5
Browns @ Jaguars
It's a large spread, but it's still Deshaun Watson throwing to a bunch of rookies. On the road.
Model Strength: 1.3
✅ BET — CARDINALS +9.5
Cardinals @ Chargers
The Cardinals have the most difficult schedule in the league and are dead last in our power-ratings.
Model Strength: 1.1
Lines shown are the consensus lines evaluated by DomModel. Always shop for the best available number.
