Las Vegas (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
Power rankings: Las Vegas 18, Pittsburgh 23
Spread update: This line has moved toward the model. Pittsburgh is now 2.5 point favorites.
Keys to the game: The Raiders offense is 13th in both DVOA and EPA/play, going against a Steelers defense that is 13th in DVOA and 23rd in EPA/play. Their offensive line has improved as the season has progressed -- RT Jermaine Eluemunor has turned a dependable player while LT Kolton Miller continues to play at elite levels. The Steelers pass rush should still test them, however. TJ Watt certainly isn't playing at his pre-pec injury levels, but he and Alex Highsmith still represent a strong duo off the edge. Although I think the Raiders tackles can hold their own, the biggest issue comes from DT Cam Heyward against the Raiders interior line. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow both returned from injury last week, which gives the Raiders a strong receiving core, led by Davante Adams. The Steelers secondary isn't great, which should give the Raiders an advantage. Pittsburgh has been better against the run (8th in DVOA) then the pass (18th). Josh Jacobs has been arguably the best running back in football this season, giving the Raiders an equally strong run game (7th in DVOA).
Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is recovered from his concussion and will get the start against the Raiders. Pittsburgh is 18th in DVOA and 19th in EPA/play -- they boost a mediocre offensive line with decent receivers. WR Diontae Johnson (toe) is technically questionable, but he appears likely to play. Johnson, rookie WR George Pickens, and TE Pat Freiermuth lead the Steelers receiving group. They'll have a matchup that's about as easy as it gets -- the Raiders defense is dead last in DVOA and 26th in EPA/play. Las Vegas has a horrid pass rush, but Maxx Crosby is one of the best edge rushers in the game. He'll like up against RT Chukwuma Okorafor, where he'll have a major advantage. That said, the rest of the offensive line should be able to contain other members of the Raiders front 7. The Raiders secondary is also poor, although 2nd year corner Nate Hobbs is at least solid.
Denver @ LA Rams (+2.5)
Power rankings: Denver 26, LA Rams 27
Spread update: This line is sticking at 2.5.
Keys to the game: The Broncos offense is 28th in DVOA and 29th in EPA/play going up against a Rams defense that ranks 15th in DVOA and 20th in EPA/play, but is missing Aaron Donald (ankle). Russ Wilson will play after missing last week with a concussion, and he's also likely to get back top WR Courtland Sutton, who has been out since week 13 with a hamstring injury. Sutton and Jerry Jeudy make a decent receiving combination, but the Rams secondary (CB Jalen Ramsey, CB Troy Hill, S Taylor Rapp) should be able to hold their own. The Broncos offensive line is mediocre, but the Rams have zero pass rush without Donald. Wilson should have time to throw, giving him an even better platform to show how bad he is. The Rams have the 5th best DVOA in run defense, thanks mostly to the elite play from Bobby Wagner, while the Broncos have struggled running the football all season.
I refuse to spend time writing about Baker Mayfield playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football while throwing the ball to a receiving group that is led by Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, and Tutu Atwell. The Broncos have an excellent defense (4th in both DVOA and EPA/play) and will be making things difficult for the Rams. The Broncos blitz at the 4th highest rate in the league (33.0%), which has enabled them to generate pressure despite a banged up pass rush. They did finally get Randy Gregory back last week (he had been out with a knee issue since week 4), but he was only able to muster 1 pressure on 18 pass-rushing snaps, and didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday. They should be able to generate pressure, and their elite secondary won't have any issue against the Rams receivers.