First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

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Week 16: Prop Bets

· Brady,Week 16 2022,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Saturday 1PM Slate

Josh Allen o219.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel)

Stef Diggs o63.3 receiving yards -113 (FanDuel)

Andy Dalton o137.5 passing yards -125 (BetMGM)

Deshaun Watson o147.5 passing yards -104 (Caesasrs)
Donovan Peoples-Jones o30.5 receiving yards -125 (PointBet)
Isiah Pacheco u70.5 rushing yards -115 (PointBet)
Kenneth Walker o45.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM)
Amon-Ra St. Brown o6.5 receptions -109 (Caesars)
Desmond Ridder o135.5 passing yards -125 (PointBet)
Zeke Elliot u60.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM)

Saturday 4PM Slate
Juan Jennings u2.5 receptions +140 (FanDuel)

Saturday Night Football

Derek Carr o217.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings)

Sunday Slate

Christian Watson u54.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings)

Monday Night Football

Parris Campbell o42.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM)

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Recommended Wagers: Week 16 (Part 3)
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Week 16 Recap: Gross
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