WEEK 3 RECOMMENDATIONS
DomModel is officially live for Week 3. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its projected spread differs meaningfully from the market. From there, I review each qualifying game and decide whether the model's edge is enough to warrant an actual FirstAndThirty recommendation. This blog focuses on games where the model gave a cover probability greater than 52.5%.
Vikings @ Buccaneers
Cover Probability: 54.4%
Quick thoughts: The Vikings defense looks unstoppable while the Bucs are coming off a game where they somehow turned Deshaun Watson into, well, 2019 Deshaun Watson. The model doesn't give a rats ass about fading the public, but this is the exact spot I love to target.
BET — LV +3.0
Raiders @ Saints
Model Strength: 53.6%
Quick thoughts: Be sure to shop this around, as you may be able to find a book giving the Raiders 3.5.
I do like several spots of this matchup for Vegas. Maxx Crosby vs Taliese Fuaga is a nightmare for Tyler Shough. The Raiders secondary has also played well early in the season, and I don't think they should have a big issue against a Saints team that does not have an option behind Chris Olave. For the Raiders offense, they could be getting back Brock Bowers (knee).
BET — BUF -7
Chargers @ Bills
Cover probability: 53.2%
Quick thoughts: The model ran at BUF -7.5, which gave a cover probability of 53.2%. I don't love that, but I am betting -7 -112 on BetMGM. -7.5 is a hook, and the model doesn't know what a hook is, so I'd be extra cautious about paying steep prices at -7.5. I would fade anything that is -7.5 -110 or worse.
PASS — CHI +3.5
Eagles @ Bears
Cover probability: 53.2%
Quick thoughts: As I'm sure you know, Caleb Williams (hammy) is unlikely to play. To make matters worse, backup QB Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol. At this point, it's most likely that Case Keenum (still in the league) starts for Chicago. We'll pass here even with the high cover probability.
