First and Thirty
Updated September 23, 2026
First and Thirty combines four independent measures of NFL team strength: Betting Market, PFF Point Spread Rating, ESPN FPI, and FTN DAVE.
FTN DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) blends preseason expectations with actual DVOA performance, gradually placing more weight on the current season as more games are played.
DAVE is originally expressed on a DVOA-style percentage scale, so F&T standardizes DAVE and maps its dispersion onto the common point-rating scale of Market, PFF, and FPI before equal-weighting the four sources.
Each source is centered around league average and weighted equally. A rating of +4.0 means a team is rated approximately four points better than an average NFL team on a neutral field. A negative rating means the team is rated below league average.
These ratings are not a predicted margin for every game. Home-field advantage and matchup-specific factors are not represented by the raw team rating.
Source Agreement measures how closely the four inputs, Market, PFF, FPI and DAVE, rate each team.
High: all four ratings fall within a 1.5-point range. Moderate: the widest gap is between 1.5 and 2.5 points. Low: the widest gap exceeds 2.5 points.
When three sources are tightly aligned and one differs substantially, the team card identifies the outlying source.
Source Agreement measures disagreement between the inputs, not the probability that a ranking is correct.
It seems like forever ago, but the Bills had a convincing win at home on Thursday Night against the Lions. DJ Moore (shoulder) was injured last week, but has a chance to play this week.
The widest gap between sources is 1.65 points.
We still aren't sure if Puka Nacua (hip/groin) will play week 3, while Myles Garrett remains on IR (knee). The Rams are coming off a convincing win against the Giants on Monday Night that saw Davante Adams put up a 10/195/2
The widest gap between sources is 1.52 points.
Apparently beating up on Miami moves you up two spots in the power rankings. The NFC West is loaded.
The four sources span 4.19 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.
Even with Drew Lock playing, the Seahawks had no issues with the Cardinals. Darnold has a chance to return this week.
The four sources span 3.12 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.
After a loss to the Saints, PFF/FPI/DAVE all moved the Ravens down in their rankings, but the market kept them at 2. We could potentially see Zay Flowers (hammy) return this week.
The widest gap between sources is 2.20 points.
The Chiefs defense lost corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylon Watson to the Rams in free agency, so they traded up to draft Mansoor Delane 6th overall. Delane was injured week 1 and didn't play last week, and the Chiefs defense is still 8th in the NFL in EPA/play.
All four sources are within 1.36 points.
The Eagles were down LG Landon Dickerson (hammy), and decided to move C Cam Jurgens to LG and slot Drew Kendall (2025 5th rounder) at center. Both played poorly. The good news is they could get free agent pick up EDGE Jonathan Greenard (pectoral) back this week.
The widest gap between sources is 1.71 points.
The Texans defense is sitting at 25th in EPA/play. Nico Collins is battling a hamstring injury. Things are not ideal.
The widest gap between sources is 2.03 points.
Unsurprisingly, the Lions defense is struggling without Branch and Joseph.
All four sources are within 0.80 points.
Parker Washington is unstoppable. Unfortunately, the rest of the Jags offense didn't show up against the Broncos.
All four sources are within 1.31 points.
The Cowboys offense is 3rd in EPA/play. The defense is 31st. And neither of those things are surprising.
The four sources span 2.52 points, from FPI at the high end to PFF at the low end.
Going into week 2, the Patriots were already down WR AJ Brown (high-ankle) and CB Carlton Davis (neck). Then they lost RG Mike Onwenu (season/ankle), Dre'Mont Jones (shoulder), TE Eli Raridon (thigh), and S Craig Woodson (shoulder) during their week 2 win against Pittsburgh.
The widest gap between sources is 2.34 points.
Dexter Lawrence looks like Dexter Lawrence again, and the Bengals defense appears better than they've been in quite some time.
Market is the high outlier on the Bengals; the other three sources are within 0.95 points.
Bo Nix has 5 turnover worthy plays through 2 games and a negative EPA/play.
FPI is the low outlier on the Broncos; the other three sources are within 0.81 points.
Brian Flores is blitzing and playing more zone defense than any team in the league by a wide margin. They're often crowding the line of scrimmage, making it confusing for opposing quarterbacks to know exactly where the pressure is coming from (they only know that it is fucking coming). Caleb Williams and the Bears were completely helpless.
DAVE is the low outlier on the Vikings; the other three sources are within 0.93 points.
The Packers started the season with games against Carson Wentz and the New York Jets. They needed overtime last week to not fall to 0-2. The offensive line is a problem.
DAVE is the low outlier on the Packers; the other three sources are within 0.71 points.
The Colts defense is currently dead last in EPA/play. Both Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner are struggling. Something needs to be fixed, and fast.
The four sources span 3.06 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.
The Chargers started the year with games against the Cardinals and Raiders. They lost both convincingly. I have nothing nice to say.
The widest gap between sources is 1.64 points.
DAVE appears to be the only source not factoring in Caleb Williams (hammy) injury. Backup QB Tyson Bagent also suffered a concussion. It's likely we'll see Case Keenum this week, who is still a thing.
The four sources span 3.65 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.
I'm sure we all wanted to see Baker Mayfield get revenge against the Browns, instead we see them allow Deshaun Watson to actually play good football. The offseason sits at 28th in EPA/play
The widest gap between sources is 2.39 points.
The Panthers gave up 59 points to the Bears in week 1. They gave up 3 to the Falcons in week 2. SS Zakee Wheatley, a 5th round rookie out of Penn State, wasn't targeted once, had 3 tackles, a run stop, and a forced fumble.
All four sources are within 0.88 points.
Aaron Rodgers looks like dust.
The widest gap between sources is 1.70 points.
The Saints were 8.5-point dogs against Baltimore and won outright. Unsurprisingly, there's a large disagreement on where to slot them.
The four sources span 4.28 points, from FPI at the high end to DAVE at the low end.
Trey Tucker's deep ball abilities will lead to games like this, we saw it last year as well. While Mendoza waits for his chance, the Raiders are 2-0.
All four sources are within 0.76 points.
The Jets defense is 5th in EPA/play. David Bailey has four pressure games in each game to start his career.
The widest gap between sources is 1.88 points.
DAVE doesn't seem to be factoring in Jayden Daniels's elbow injury, but he will not be playing.
The four sources span 2.83 points, from DAVE at the high end to Market at the low end.
And just like that, Jaxson Dart is out for the year.
FPI is the low outlier on the Giants; the other three sources are within 0.63 points.
Marvin Harrison Jr. this season: 4 targets, 1 catch, 33 yards. The window on his development is closing rapidly.
The four sources span 4.30 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.
Michael Penix Jr. is back, and people are apparently excited about it. Good for them.
The sources are sharply divided on the Falcons: the highest and lowest ratings are 5.78 points apart. PFF is highest and DAVE is lowest.
The Titans offense is 27th in EPA/play. The defense is 5th. Jeffery Simmons is a monster.
The widest gap between sources is 1.61 points.
Watson's win against Tampa bought him at least one more week as starting quarterback.
DAVE is the low outlier on the Browns; the other three sources are within 0.86 points.
Just an all around disaster.
The four sources span 2.67 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.
