DomModel is officially live for Week 5. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its projected spread differs meaningfully from the market. From there, I review each qualifying game and decide whether the model's edge is enough to warrant an actual FirstAndThirty recommendation. This blog focuses on games where the model gave a cover probability greater than 52.5%.
BET — SF +3.0
49ers @ Seahawks
Cover probability: 53.0%
Best Price: FanDuel SF +3.0 -110
We're back on the 49ers, who covered with ease last week against the Broncos.
The 49ers offense is top 3 in every offensive stat worth giving a shit about: They are 1st in EPA/play, success rate, third down conversion rate, red zone conversion rate, turnovers, and series conversion rate. They're 2nd in points per drive and 3rd in explosive play rate. You get the idea. The offensive line has been fantastic while Brock Purdy has been one of the better quarterbacks in all of football. You get the idea.
The defense is 19th in EPA/play, but they're 1st in explosive play rate allowed and 6th in red zone conversion rate. Nick Bosa (calf) is expected to miss, which makes the pass rush laughably bad, but the secondary and linebacker core are all playing well.
That's not to talk poorly about the Seahawks, they're the defending Super Bowl champions for a reason. Their defense in particular has been, predictably, one of the best in football, ranking 2nd in EPA/play, 4th in success rate, 2nd in explosive play rate, and 3rd in points per drive. The offense is 12th in EPA/play. As usual, the key to the game is stopping JSN, who is showing that last season was no fluke. Smith-Njigba has already accumulated 41 targets for 32 catches, 481 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He has a 36.6% target share, 4.2 yards/route run, and 15.0 yards/reception. He is quite good.
PASS — NYJ -2.0
Browns @ Jets
Cover probability: 52.6%
The breakeven point on a -110 bet is 52.5%. This is quite literally 0.1% above that.
If there was something that the model wasn't considering (injuries, hook, travel, etc) that went in the Jets favor I may consider a bet here, but the only meaningful news is Breece Hall's (quad) injury.
Who wants to bet on the Jets, anyway?
PASS — IND +2.5
Colts @ Steelers
Cover probability: 52.9%
Indianapolis clears our review threshold, but we're passing on IND +2.5.
Similar to above, this barely clears the 52.5% threshold, so we would need to see something in our favor to take the Colts. Instead, we have a Colts team that is coming back from London, who then has to travel to Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Steelers played last Thursday and will have extra rest.
PASS — TB +10.0
Bucs @ Cowboys
Cover probability: 55.9%
Yeah, still no Baker. We're passing.
