First and Thirty’s Week 5 Power Ratings: Where the Market, PFF, FPI, and DVOA Agree — and Where They Don’t

Preseason expectation and the Rams defense are doing the heavy lifting here. The defense ranks 3rd in EPA/play, 6th in success rate, 3rd in explosive play rate, and 6th in third down conversion rate. That's with Myles Garrett (knee) getting injured week 1, and Aaron Donald (back) missing weeks 1 and 4. Last week, against the Lane Johnson-less Eagles, Byron Young had 7 pressures and 2.5 sacks. Puka Nacua (hip/groin) returned to run a route on 53 of 58 dropbacks. He was targeted 12 times and caught 9 balls for 125 yards, and ran for a touchdown. I guess he's ok. The only thing holding them back is the quarterback himself, who has a negative completion rate over expectation (-1.5%) and 8 turnover worthy plays.

FPI is the low outlier on the Rams; the other three sources are within 0.98 points.

The 49ers remain undefeated, and could have taken the top spot from the Rams if the market didn't put them at 8th overall. The 49ers offense is top 3 in every offensive stat worth giving a shit about: They are 1st in EPA/play, success rate, third down conversion rate, red zone conversion rate, turnovers, and series conversion rate. They're 2nd in points per drive and 3rd in explosive play rate. The offensive line has been fantastic while Brock Purdy has been one of the better quarterbacks in all of football.

The four sources span 4.55 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.

Their defense in particular has been, predictably, one of the best in football, ranking 2nd in EPA/play, 4th in success rate, 2nd in explosive play rate, and 3rd in points per drive. The offense is 12th in EPA/play. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has already accumulated 41 targets for 32 catches, 481 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He has a 36.6% target share, 4.2 yards/route run, and 15.0 yards/reception. He is quite good.

The widest gap between sources is 2.28 points.

The Bills took a tough loss at home to the Patriots, which sent them down 2 spots to number 4. The offense is still 2nd in EPA/play, 6th in success rate, 1st in explosive play rate, and 3rd in points per drive. DJ Moore did leave the game (shoulder), but Keon Coleman finally looked competent. On defense, Greg Rousseau is playing at an all-pro level, but the rest of the team looks like ass - they're 28th in EPA/play, 26th in success rate, and 26th in explosive play rate allowed.

All four sources are within 1.07 points.

The Chiefs are on a bye this week. They held off the previously undefeated Raiders, ultimately winning 30-27. The offense is 6th in EPA/play, the defense is 8th. Pat Mahomes has not slowed down one bit since coming off his torn ACL and Kenneth Walker is the best running back in football. Life is good.

All four sources are within 1.25 points.

The Jags offense is 3rd in EPA/play. The defense is 4th. The only issue that I see so far is the explosive play rate allowed on defense, which sits at 15.7%, 27th in the league.

The widest gap between sources is 2.09 points.

The Lions offense is fine. The defense is turning every offense they face into the greatest show on turf. They rank 31st in EPA/play allowed, 30th in success rate allowed, dead last in explosive play rate allowed, red zone conversion rate allowed, and third down conversion rate allowed. S Brian Branch tore his Achilles last December and is on track to return to practice this week.

Market is the high outlier on the Lions; the other three sources are within 0.86 points.

The Texans are probably the best 0-4 team in NFL history. There is "moderate agreement" with them being at 8th among the 4 sources. The defense is 26th in EPA/play, but they are simply too good for that to continue. We know that defensive statistics are volatile, and I'd be stunned if they don't turn it around. Meanwhile, the offense is a completely different story with Nico Collins in the lineup. Collins returned last week from a hamstring injury to put up a 7/118/2 line on 8 targets.

The widest gap between sources is 2.09 points.

The Cowboys offense, 4th in EPA/play. The defense? Dead last. Adding Joey Porter Jr will certainly help.

The four sources span 3.09 points, from FPI at the high end to PFF at the low end.

Against the 49ers, Bo Nix had an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 4.9 yards. He still couldn't complete 60% of his passes (59.5%, 8.5% below expectation). He gained just 5.1 yards per attempt.

All four sources are within 0.46 points.

Caleb Williams (hammy) will not return week 5. Ben Johnson has now won games with 3 different QBs. The offense is 9th in EPA/play with backup QBs. It will be scary once everyone is healthy. The defense is the surprise of the season, ranking 6th in EPA/play, 8th in success rate allowed, 10th in red zone conversion rate allowed, and 1st in third down conversion rate allowed. They have been occasionally crushed by the deep ball, ranking 28th in explosive play rate allowed.

The widest gap between sources is 2.25 points.

The Bengals lost to the Jags last week, which wasn't a surprise to you if you tailed our bets. The bigger story, however, was that both J'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) were injured.

The widest gap between sources is 2.38 points.

The Patriots move up 3 spots after an upset win in Buffalo. They were without a pair of Christian's (Gonzalez and Barmore), AJ Brown, and Mike Onwenu.

The four sources span 3.89 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

The Vikings defense is the best in the league by any meaningful measure. They play more zone coverage and blitz more than any team in football. Hilariously, the one area they are bad at is missed tackles, where they rank 31st in the NFL. I guess you don't need to tackle much if nobody is ever gaining yards on you. The offense was without Justin Jefferson (low ankle) last week. He's badly needed as that side of the ball is a disaster.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Vikings; the other three sources are within 0.77 points.

Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury and is likely out. They should be lower, but DAVE doesn't have an injury adjustment. The offense has been 5th in EPA/play, the defense 11th.

DAVE is the high outlier on the Ravens; the other three sources are within 0.80 points.

The Eagles offense is 29th in EPA/play. They also just lost Lane Johnson (retirement), Saquon Barkley (hamsttring), and Devonta Smith (hamstring), leaving them without their best lineman, running back, and receiver. The defense is 25th in EPA/play and lost LB Jonathan Greenard (ankle) and QB Quinyon Mitchell (knee). I think they should be even lower than this.

The four sources span 3.09 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

The offense is 23rd in EPA/play. The defense is 24th. What are we going to do with Sauce Gardner? The Colts traded two first round picks for him last year and QBs have a 125.6 passer rating when targeting him.

The widest gap between sources is 1.72 points.

The Falcons just dropped 45 on the Saints - they're still 17th in EPA/play. The good news is Michael Penix Jr is coming out strong. He's getting rid of the ball unbelievably quickly (average time to throw = 2.29 seconds), and it's working. Penix has a turnover worthy play rate of 1.9% and a completion rate over expectation of 11.4%. The defense continues to play well, ranking top 10 in EPA/play, success rate allowed, explosive play rate allowed, and missed tackle rate.

The four sources span 4.55 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

The Steelers offense is garbage. I have nothing nice to say.

All four sources are within 1.45 points.

Carolina is coming off an impressive win against Detroit. Their offense is up to 8th in EPA/play, 5th in explosive play rate, and 9th in points per drive. I've mentioned the Lions secondary already, but it's still worth highlighting WR Tetairoa McMillan, who dropped a 14/192/2 game on them.

All four sources are within 1.14 points.

The offense is 31st in EPA/play, 29th in points per drive, and 31st in turnovers. Justin Herbert has traditionally been one of the better quarterbacks at not putting the ball in harm's way. The offense was supposed to improve under Mike McDaniel, but this isn't it.

The four sources span 3.29 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

I probably sound like a broken record about the Packers offensive line at this point, so I won't harp on it. Last week, they started Laken Tomlinson, who they signed off of the Cowboys practice squad. He was, predictably, not an improvement. The offense is 27th in EPA/play. The defense is 20th.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Packers; the other three sources are within 0.91 points.

The Raiders are 3-1, with their one loss coming to the undefeated Chiefs (30-27). They are 23rd in the power rankings and 3.5 point road dogs to the Patriots. Brutal.

All four sources are within 1.29 points.

Jayden Daniels (elbow) is on track to return week 5. This is important since Marcus Mariota (knee) was injured last week. Mariota was replaced by some guy named Athan Kaliakmanis.

The widest gap between sources is 2.39 points.

The issue remains the defense (hint, they gave up 45 to the Falcons). They sit at 30th in EPA/play, dead last in success rate allowed, and 24th in red zone conversion rate allowed. It'll be interesting to see what the offense can do if they can get Jordan Tyson (hammy) back.

The four sources span 3.94 points, from FPI at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

The offense is 20th in EPA/play, the defense is 27th. You have to appreciate the weaponry that the Cardinals deploy, but the offensive line is in trouble without Paris Johnson (biceps).

The four sources span 4.16 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.

The Jets offense is 14th in EPA/play. The defense is 15th. Not bad!

All four sources are within 1.45 points.

I don't think we need to spend much time on the Baker Mayfieldless Bucs.

The sources are sharply divided on the Buccaneers: the highest and lowest ratings are 5.40 points apart. DAVE is highest and PFF is lowest.

Malik Nabers finally looked like his pre torn ACL self, putting up a 6/112/1 line on 7 targets against the Cardinals. Nabers owns a respectable 24.1% target share on the season for the Giants. On defense, rookie LB/EDGE Arvell Reese looks like a monster. He rushed the passer on 13 snaps last week, the highest of the year for him.

The four sources span 4.60 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

The Browns are 3-1 and tied with the Lamar Jacksonless Ravens for first in the AFC North. The offense is 19th in EPA/play, 28th in explosive play rate, 24th in points per drive, and 26th in red zone conversion rate. It does not exactly scream "3-1 record."

DAVE is the low outlier on the Browns; the other three sources are within 0.44 points.

26th in EPA/play on offense, 23rd on defense. Carnell Tate had his best game as a pro, catching 9 balls for 145 yards on 12 targets. Unfortunately, he fumbled twice and dropped two passes.

All four sources are within 1.06 points.

I'm sure the front office is spending their Saturday's watching college football.

The four sources span 2.54 points, from Market at the high end to PFF at the low end.