DomModel is officially live for Week 6. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its projected spread differs meaningfully from the market. From there, I review each qualifying game and decide whether the model's edge is enough to warrant an actual FirstAndThirty recommendation. This blog focuses on games where the model gave a cover probability greater than 52.5%.
BET — NYG +1.5
Saints @ Giants
Cover probability: 55.4%
The Giants have the strongest model signal this week. We're recommending NYG +1.5.
The Giants have a quarterback problem (obviously), but they're still 17th in EPA/play. Outside of the most position on the field, there is still plenty to like. Jermaine Eluemunor and Andrew Thomas is a solid tackle combination. Bryan Hudson is having a fantastic season at center. Malik Nabers, who tore his ACL last year, struggled with production to start the year, but was earning targets. In his last two games, he's put up 6/112/1 and 11/121/1 lines. The defense is 22nd in EPA/play, but I expect that number to improve as the season progresses. There's simply too many productive players combined with a solid coaching staff to be a bottom-10 unit.
The Saints offense is 18th in EPA/play, thanks mostly to Tyler Shough and Chris Olave. The defense is disaster-land, ranking 28th in EPA/play allowed, 32nd in success rate allowed, 23rd in explosive play rate allowed, and 22nd in red zone conversion rate allowed.
PASS — BAL -4.5
Ravens @ Browns
Cover probability: 54.4%
We don't know if Lamar Jackson (ankle) will play or not this week. There is uncertainty baked into the line, and that's precisely why the model picked it. If you think you have some insight into Jackson's playing that the market doesn't know about, feel free.
PASS — TB +2.5
Steelers @ Buccaneers
Cover probability: 54.5%
Same story as always - the Baker Mayfield injury prevents us from picking it.
PASS — SF -7.5
Commanders @ 49ers
Cover probability: 54.8%
We're passing on this one due to the 7.5 hook. The 7-hook is worth about -3.25%. Once we factor that in, the bet is no longer profitable with a -110 vig. If the line does move to 7 (doubtful), I would take San Francisco with the points.
