First and Thirty’s Week 6 Power Ratings: Where the Market, PFF, FPI, and DVOA Agree — and Where They Don’t

The Rams are 2-3, in 3rd place in their division, and still sit on top of the power rankings. It's a wonderful reminder that win/loss record can be deceiving when ranking teams. Myles Garrett (knee) won't be back this week, but week 7 is a possibility. The offense is 9th in EPA/play. The defense is 10th.

FPI is the low outlier on the Rams; the other three sources are within 0.59 points.

Honestly, the Rams and 49ers are so close it's fine to put either at 1 or 2. The 49ers sit at 5-0, just 1 of 3 teams still left undefeated. Nick Bosa (calf) has a chance to return this week. The offense, despite losing virtually all of their pass catchers (except Mike Evans) to injuries sits at 2nd in EPA/play, 1st in success rate, 3rd in explosive play rate, 4th in points per drive, 1st in third down conversion rate, and 1st in red zone conversion rate.

The four sources span 3.21 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.

Thanks to an overtime blocked field goal, the Bills got the win against the Rams. If you read the 49ers blurb and were wondering which offense is ahead of them, look no further. DJ Moore (shoulder) has a chance to return this week.

All four sources are within 1.31 points.

The offense sits at 24th in EPA/play. They need playmakers who do not posses the initials JSN in their name to step up. The defense, of course, is nasty - sitting at 2nd in EPA/play allowed, 5th in success rate allowed, and 2nd in explosive play rate allowed. Oddly, they are 25th in red zone conversion rate allowed, but I would expect that to regress.

The widest gap between sources is 2.13 points.

The Chiefs are coming off a bye and sit at 4-0. The offense is 4th in EPA/play while the defense is 8th in EPA/play allowed. We'll have to keep an eye on Rashee Rice (hamstring), who was injured week 4.

All four sources are within 0.62 points.

The Jags offense is 5th in EPA/play. The defense is 3rd in EPA/play allowed. Life is good.

All four sources are within 1.36 points.

It sounds like the Ravens are getting optimistic that Lamar Jackson (ankle) could return this week. They are 4.5-point road favorites against the Browns.

The four sources span 4.31 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

The Texans won a game (ok, it was Tennessee)! And they added Marvin Harrison Jr. Despite giving up just 3 points to the Titans, the defense is still 18th in EPA/play allowed. That number will keep getting better.

The widest gap between sources is 1.62 points.

Not much has changed - the Lions are 3rd in EPA/play on offense and 31st in EPA/play allowed on defense. The defense is far better than their numbers indicate, and they'll get a major boost when Brian Branch (Achilles) returns. Branch tore his Achilles last December, and the Lions have opened up his 21-day practice window and are on a bye this week.

All four sources are within 0.27 points.

The Patriots (offense 11th in EPA/play, defense 14th) decided they were good again. AJ Brown (ankle) can come off IR this week, but they have the Jets this week and TNF coming up the following week.

The widest gap between sources is 2.31 points.

Bo Nix this season: 97/162 (59.9%, -2.9% below expectation), 942 yards (5.8 YPA), 6 TDs, 0 picks, 49.8 PFF grade. Its should be of no surprise that the Broncos offense is 25th in EPA/play, and we know exactly why.

All four sources are within 1.12 points.

It sounds like Caleb Williams (hammy) will return this week. The Bears sit at 3-2 and are 2.5-point road favorites against the Falcons.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Bears; the other three sources are within 0.77 points.

The Bengals offense is 10th in EPA/play. The defense is 15th in EPA/play allowed. They are dead last in explosive play rate allowed, 27th in third down conversion rate allowed, but 4th in red zone conversion rate allowed. Bend but don't break. Boye Mafe and Dexter Lawrence give the Bengals a quality pass rush, but the secondary (outside of DJ Turner) is a problem. They are on a bye this week.

The widest gap between sources is 2.37 points.

The Vikings are the anti-Lions - 26th in offense EPA/play, 1st in defense EPA/play allowed. Scheme tendencies are weird because it depends on who you ask, but they are blitzing at least twice as much and playing far more zone than any team in football. They are on a bye this week.

All four sources are within 1.24 points.

The Cowboys offense is 7th in EPA/play. The defense? Dead last. I still see the defense improving, especially once they get Joey Porter Jr fully up to speed, but for now, this is a major problem.

The four sources span 2.86 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.

The Packers have continued to shake up their offensive line, and it isn't working. The offense is 21st in EPA/play, and we know exactly why.

The widest gap between sources is 1.76 points.

The Steelers defense is 16th in EPA/play against with TJ Watt, Cam Heyward, Alex Highsmith, Jamel Dean, and Jalen Ramsey. They need to be better. On offense, DK Metcalf is averaging just 1.1 yards per route run.

Market is the high outlier on the Steelers; the other three sources are within 0.89 points.

Against the Jags, and with C Cam Jurgens traded and Lane Johnson retired, Jalen Hurts was under pressure 22 times on 43 dropbacks (51.2%), despite a quick 2.42-second average time to throw.

The widest gap between sources is 2.39 points.

The Panthers come out of their bye at 2-2, but that's good for first place in the AFC South! The offense is 8th in EPA/play, the defense is 20th. They are 1.5 point road favorites against the Eagles.

All four sources are within 1.02 points.

The offense: 20th in EPA/play. The defense? Even worse, 26th. The 1-2 punch at corner of Sauce Gardner/Charvarius Ward is not working.

The widest gap between sources is 2.49 points.

It sounds like Michael Penix Jr (ribs) is ok and will play week 6. They've played better than their power rankings indicates, sitting at 16th in offense EPA/play and 12th on defense. Somehow the pass rush (without Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr) is winning at rates I'd never expect - they're 27th in blitz rate and 3rd in pressure rate.

The four sources span 3.48 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

The offense is dead last in EPA/play. Dead. Last.

The four sources span 3.07 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

Raiders fans were almost certainly bitching about being so low on the power rankings despite winning football games, but they showed us exactly why they're bottom 10 last week in New England.

The widest gap between sources is 1.58 points.

The offense is 15th in EPA/play, but they're struggling on 3rd down (29th) and in the red zone (25th). I expect both of those figures to regress. The defense (23rd in EPA/play) is another story.

All four sources are within 0.94 points.

Baker Mayfield is likely returning week 7, meaning another start for UDFA rookie Jalon Daniels. Daniels looked serviceable last week against the Cowboys (+7.3% CPOE), but it is the Cowboys, after all.

The sources are sharply divided on the Buccaneers: the highest and lowest ratings are 5.59 points apart. DAVE is highest and PFF is lowest.

The Jets defense is 4th in EPA/play, 5th in explosive play rate allowed, and 7th in third down conversion rate allowed. They are blitzing more than any team that isn't the Vikings, which isn't getting them nearly as much pressure as you'd expect (19th in pressure rate). However, the secondary has been fantastic.

All four sources are within 1.33 points.

The Giants have a quarterback problem (obviously), but they're still 17th in EPA/play. Outside of the most position on the field, there is still plenty to like. Jermaine Eluemunor and Andrew Thomas is a solid tackle combination. Bryan Hudson is having a fantastic season at center. Malik Nabers, who tore his ACL last year, struggled with production to start the year, but was earning targets. In his last two games, he's put up 6/112/1 and 11/121/1 lines. The defense is 22nd in EPA/play, but I expect that number to improve as the season progresses. There's simply too many productive players combined with a solid coaching staff to be a bottom-10 unit.

The widest gap between sources is 2.33 points.

The Saints offense is 18th in EPA/play, thanks mostly to Tyler Shough and Chris Olave. The defense is disaster-land, ranking 28th in EPA/play allowed, 32nd in success rate allowed, 23rd in explosive play rate allowed, and 22nd in red zone conversion rate allowed.

The four sources span 4.78 points, from Market at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

It was probably the right move trading Marvin Harrison Jr for a 2nd round pick, but that doesn't help their Paris Johnsonless offensive line. Or their schedule. They are 12.5-point dogs to the Rams.

The four sources span 4.70 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.

The offense is 29th in EPA/play and dead last in success rate. The defense is 11th in EPA/play against, thanks mostly to the pass defense, which is 6th in EPA/play against. They are playing more man defense (58%) than any team in football.

The widest gap between sources is 1.70 points.

The offense is 31st in EPA/play. The defense is 25th. It's that bad.

All four sources are within 1.05 points.

The Dolphins are tanking wonderfully. Their young players are exciting. They kept it close against Cincy. Most importantly, they are losing every game. Miami has a bye this week.

PFF is the low outlier on the Dolphins; the other three sources are within 0.47 points.