Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Minnesota
Line closed: MIN -4.0, line moved toward the model
The Bucs ended up winning outright, producing a sweat free win for us. Baker Mayfield played well, limiting ugly throws we've seen from him far too often and keeping the game within reach. On defense, the Bucs had no answer for Justin Jefferson (9 catches for 150 yards), but nobody does these days, and they kept other receivers at bay. The difference came in the turnover department - Cousins had an interception and fumbled twice while Mayfield kept the ball out of harms way.
Final score: Tampa 20, Minnesota 17
Tennessee @ New Orleans (-3.0)
Line closed: NO -2.5, line moved toward the model
This was our only loss of the week, but I genuinely feel that we got a tad unlucky. The Saints were up 16-9 late in the third, before surrendering a 12 play, 48 yard drive that resulted in a field goal for the Titans. After another punt, Tennessee got the ball back down 4, and immediately started driving. On 4th and 6 at the Saints 11 with 2:17 to go, the Titans elected to kick a field goal, perhaps being unaware that a field goal is worth 3 points rather than 4. It's often thought that you should be "safe" and take the points, but Tennessee never got the ball back and therefore never had a shot to win. It's inherently risky to give the ball back to your opponent with 2 minutes left while you're losing. Virtually all of the models that I saw recommended going for it - including this example, which has the Titans losing 2.6% in win probability by kicking the field goal.
That field goal naturally made it difficult for us to cover, but we weren't quite dead yet. The Saints took the ensuing drive down to the Tennessee 20. On 3rd and 4, if the Titans are able to make a stop, New Orleans likely takes an easy field goal and we're back to covering. However, Jamaal Williams took a hand off 11 yards, easily enough for a first down and put the Saints in a position where they could take knees.
I don't mean to bitch too much about this one - especially since we're typically betting dogs, these will end up going our way as well. But when we lose, I bitch. It's how these blogs typically go, and I refuse to change.
Final score: New Orleans 16, Tennessee 15
Cincinnati @ Cleveland (+2.5)
Line closed: CLE -0.5, line moved toward the model
One of the underrated stories of the offseason was the Browns revamping their defensive line. Now armed with more than Myles Garrett, Joe Burrow was under pressure on 36.4% of his dropbacks, with resulted in a 30% completion percentage and 2.4 yards per attempt. Cleveland was also able to blanket Tee Higgins, who had a whopping 0 catches on 7 targets. You can blame the rain or early-season struggles, but the defense took it to one of the better offenses in football.
Final score: Cleveland 24, Cincy 3
Green Bay (+1.0) @ Chicago
Line closed: CHI -1.0, line stayed the same
Christian Watson didn't play. Jordan Love completed a measly 55.6% of his passes. The running game produced 3.0 yards per attempt. Of the 6 WR/TEs targeted, not a single one was drafted before 2022. And yet, Green Bay put up 38 points.
To say things went our way would be an understatement. we had a point to work with, but we certainly didn't need it.
Final score: Green Bay 38, Chicago 20
Las Vegas (+3.5) @ Denver
Line closed: DEN -3.0, line moved toward the model
This ended up being a fairly uneventful game. There was somehow only 6 drives in the 2nd half.
Denver jumped out to a 13-10 lead at the half. To start the third quarter, they attempted a 55 yard field goal, which went wide right. That gave the Raiders great field position, but rather than take advantage of it, Jimmy Garoppolo decided to throw a pick at the Broncos 6. Denver was able to grab a field goal, giving them a 16-10 lead. The Raiders were able to get rolling on the next drive, leading to a Garoppolo to Jakobi Meyers touchdown, giving the Raiders a 1 point lead. That's how things ended.
Final score: Las Vegas 17, Denver 16
Dallas (-3.0) @ NY Giants
Line closed: DAL -3.5, line moved toward the model
The Sunday Night Fuck Show. I don't believe any commentary is necessary beyond proving you with the final score.
-We finished 5-1.
-5 of the 6 lines moved toward the model.
-We bet 4 dogs this week. They all won outright.
It was a good week.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Josh Doubs u208.5 passing yards -115 (FanDuel): Doubs threw for 132 yards. WIN +0.87 units
Brock Purdy u235.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Purdy's arm wasn't needed beyond into the 2nd half. He finished with 220 yards. WIN +0.87 units
Brandon Aiyuk u54.5 receiving yards +100 (Caesars): Sometimes I bet against guys who have career games. This is one of those times. Aiyuk had 129 yards receiving. LOSS -1 unit
Anthony Richardson u45.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): Richardson ran for 40 yards on 10 carries. WIN +0.90 units
Chris Godwin o5.5 receptions +124 (DraftKings): Godwin had 5 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Justin Herbert u294.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): This was a shootout that the Chargers lost. Herbert still only had 229 yards passing. WIN +0.90 units
Raheem Mostert u63.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): Mostert had 10 carries for 37 yards. WIN +0.90 units
CeeDee Lamb o6.5 receptions +124 (DraftKings): The Cowboys didn't exactly need Lamb. He had 4 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Props total: 5-3, +1.43 units