The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
With week 18, we also have to factor in motivation and the potential for resting starters. I generally avoided teams that may not be going all out.
Saturday Slate
Pat Mahomes u331.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel)
Kadrius Toney u36.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel)
Travis Kelce o6.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM)
Trevor Lawrence u266.5 passing yards +100 (Caesars)
Sunday 1PM Slate
Gus Edwards u36.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM)
JK Dobbins o55.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
Kenneth Walker u77.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
Hayden Hurts u31.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel)
Isaiah Mckenzie u30.5 receiving yards -108 (Caesars)
Pat Freiermuth u3.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM)
Sunday 4PM Slate
Baker Mayfield o184.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM)
Sunday Night Football
