Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
Week 18 was wild as always, with the Vikings, Bucs, Giants, and Ravens all resting starters in some form. We had to decline a number of wagers as recommended by the model, as discussed here. It seemed like we made the right calls. To review quickly:
Model's pick: NYG +14
Line closed: NYG +16.5
Model's pick: BAL +7.0
Line closed: BAL +11.5
Model's pick: TB +4.0
Line closed: TB +6.0
Model's pick: HOU +2.5
Line closed: HOU +3.0
In each instance, the line moved away from the model. I'm happy with the process, even if the bets went 2-2.
Let's review the game we actually bet:
NY Jets @ Miami (-1.0)
Line closed: MIA -4.0, line moved toward the model
A literal stinker that featured Joe Flacco vs Skyler Thompson (and an early departure for Tyreek Hill due to an ankle injury), there naturally isn't too much to say. The offensive slugfest was tied up at 3-3 at the half. The Dolphins won the field goal battle in the second half 2-1, giving them a crushing 9-6 lead. The Jets, rather then pretending like they had any chance at putting points on the board with 18 seconds left in the game, decided to fumble out of the end zone for a safety, putting them and everyone watching out of their misery.
Final score: Miami 11, NY Jets 6
Result: WIN
Sides recap: 1-0. Not much action, but I'm happy with our process.
Prop bets:
Pat Mahomes u331.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel): Mahomes finished with 202 passing yards. WIN +1 unit
Kadrius Toney u36.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Toney had just 18 receiving yards. WIN +1 unit
Travis Kelce o6.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): Kelce finished with 6 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Trevor Lawrence u266.5 passing yards +100 (Caesars): Lawrence had 212 passing yards. WIN +1 unit
I have a bit of explaining to do on the next two bets. I took Gus Edwards's under and JK Dobbins's over as I believed the market wasn't properly accounting for the RB split. I was ok with betting on Ravens players as they had motivation despite already clinching a playoff birth -- they could have secured a home playoff game with a win + a coin toss win (seriously), and they also could have secured the 5 seed if a win + Chargers loss. The 5 seed is extremely important in the AFC as it faces the AFC South winner rather then either the Bengals/Chiefs/Bills. However, with Lamar Jackson unable to play, the Ravens were 9.5 point dogs Sunday morning. Rather then risking injuries, they ruled QB Tyler Huntley out (who was questionable), as well as JK Dobbins and Mark Andrews, neither of whom had any injury designation. That cancelled the Dobbins bet, but put the Edwards bet in a really bad spot. Edwards did end up getting injured, so it worked out for us, but it was probably a situation I should have handled better.
Gus Edwards u36.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM): Edwards had 16 yards before being injured. WIN +1 unit
JK Dobbins o55.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Cancelled
Hayden Hurts u31.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Hurst had 14 yards receiving. WIN +1 unit
Isaiah Mckenzie u30.5 receiving yards -108 (Caesars): McKenzie had 19 yards receiving. WIN +1 unit.
Pat Freiermuth u3.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): Freiermuth was injured in the 4th quarter, but had 0 catches at that point. WIN +1.2 units
Kenneth Walker u77.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Walker had 114 yards rushing. LOSS -1.14 units.
Baker Mayfield o184.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Despite going to OT, Baker only had 147 yards passing. LOSS -1.2 units
Props recap: 7-3, +3.6 units
Previous recaps:
Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model
Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover
Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants
Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants
Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week
Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week
Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun
Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points
Week 9: Clean Sweep
Week 10: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500
Week 11: Ouch Town, Population Us
Week 12: Look At That, We Won
Week 13: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If You Cover
Week 14: An Average Week
Week 15: When Final Drives Go Against Us
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Week 12: 4-3
Week 13: 4-3
Week 14: 4-4
Week 15: 3-4-1
Week 16: 1-4-1
Week 17: 4-1
Week 18: 1-0
Season total: 52-52-3
Props record:
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units
Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units
Week 14: 8-6, +1.86 units
Week 15: 4-8, -4.7 units
Week 16: 6-8, -2.85 units
Week 17: 8-8, -0.74 units
Week 18: 7-3, +3.6 units
Season total: 104-100, -3.39 units