My prop bet card for week 3 is below. This is data driven process. If you're curious about how the model works, read this article.
Some thoughts:
-Christian Watson's mean projection is consistently under this number. The total for Atlanta/Green Bay is 42.5. I'm honestly surprised the model isn't on more unders on TNF.
-The model is not a believer in Deshaun Watson's week 2 performance. Neither am I. The Denzel Boston number makes me nervous because he's been quite good, but we trust the process.
-David Montgomery is a rare over for rushing yards this week. The Texans are 2.5-point favorites over a Colts team that is stone-last in defense EPA/play. The RB situation got a bit dicey last week in Hoston since they were trailing Cincy, but Montgomery should see about a 60/40 split over Woody Marks on games where they aren't getting pantsed.
-I feel like every week we're destined to lose betting Kenneth Walker's under.
-The model fucking loves Jeremiyah Love.
-Tre Tucker had a monster week 2, posting a 5/192/1 line. I'm not at all surprised to see the market high on his over the following week.
-It's interesting that we're on Kyren Williams's over. He's at an almost perfect 50/50 split with Blake Corum this year (23 attempts Kyren, 22 Corrum). That said, Williams has been the better back, averaging 3.35 yards after contact to Corum's 2.00.
