Week 3 Recap
Week Record: 2-1-0
Season Record: 5-6-0
❌ TB +1.5 — LOSS
Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16
My Take: Whenever you play the Vikings, the story is always going to be how your offense will handle Brian Flores's blitz-heavy scheme. Minnesota is quite literally doubling most teams blitz rates. As I've discussed, the tricky part isn't just that the Vikings are often blitzing, it's also that they're doing an incredible job disguising who is coming. As a quarterback, you know pressure is coming, you just don't know where it's coming from. Here is how the Bucs offense faired:
Baker Mayfield averaged 3.2 seconds to throw and Flores blitzed him on 71.4% of dropbacks. He was under pressure 35.7% of the time, which I consider a massive win for the Bucs offensive line
— Brady (@FirstAndThirty) September 28, 2026
The problem wasn't the Bucs offensive line, but Mayfield himself, who finished with -0.3 EPA/play and -16.1% completion rate over expectation.
Luckily for us, Kyler Murray was also ass. His EPA/play was even worse (-0.44), and he completed just 51.7% of his passes (0.7% below expectation).
That led to an even-matched game. Both offenses scored a touchdown each. Both kickers went 3/3 on field goals. The 7 point difference? Minnesota's Myles Price took a punt 86 yards to the house.
✅ LV +3 — WIN
Saints 27, Raiders 35
My Take: Brock Bowers is back, and is as uncoverable as ever.
Brock Bowers yesterday. Ran a route on 40/44 dropbacks (most on the team): 55 total snaps (1 backfield, 9 inline, 19 slot, 26 wide). 3.31 YPRR. 12 targets, 10 catches, 116 yards, 1 touchdown
— Brady (@FirstAndThirty) September 28, 2026
As for the game, things stayed quiet early, with the Raiders leading 16-13 at the half. The start of the third was disaster land for us - Vegas punted, gave up a touchdown, fumbled, then gave up another touchdown, giving the Saints a 27-16 lead. The Raiders then scored two touchdowns unanswered to lead by one, but they ultimately won thanks to 3 Saints turnovers in the 4th quarter.
Kirk Cousins, determined not to lose his job to a child, played well - completing 66.7% of his passes for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns. Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce had 6 pressures each.
✅ BUF -7 — WIN
Chargers 16, Bills 24
My Take: The Bills first four drives: Fumble, punt, interception, interception. Thanks to the Chargers offense being ass and a missed FG from Cameron Dicker, Buffalo only found themselves down 10-0 in the 2nd. The Bills were able to get on the board with a field goal, then after a 3 and out from the Chargers, they were able to orchestrate a 10 play, 80 yard drive that was capped off with a Josh Allen tush-push touchdown. Despite the Bills trying desperately to tank the game, we were somehow tied at the half.
The second half began as follows: Chargers FG, Bills (Kincaid) fumble, Chargers punt, Allen strip sacked for a fumble, Herbert INT at the Buffalo 1 (brutal decision/pass from Herbet). From there, the Bills finally woke up and scored touchdowns on back to back drives.
Some positivity: DJ Moore bounced back from a shoulder injury to secure 6 catches for 67 yards. RT Spencer Brown didn't allow a single pressure. EDGE Greg Rousseau continued his fantastic season with 6 pressures and 2 sacks.
