My prop bet card for week 4 is below. This is a data driven process with manual review. If you're curious about how the model works, read this article.
Some thoughts/observations:
-Pittsburgh at Cleveland, a classic Thusday Night Fuck Show (TNFS). The over/under is 38.5. The model likes Raheim Sanders's receiving yardage under, which is an interesting play. Sanders has become the Browns third down option - last week he ran a route on 21/43 Deshaun Watson dropbacks, hauling in 4 catches for 34 yards.
-I apparently have a bug with identifying London games. Indy/Was is being played at 9:30AM and shouldn't be listed on the 1pm slate. I'm too lazy to fix it.
-We had Jacory Croskey-Merritt's over last week. It failed. Now we're on his under.
-We're targeting props on both of Houston's running backs in opposite directions - David Montgomery's over and Woody Marks's under. Last week Montgomery out-snapped Marks 34 to 20 and had 11 rushing attempts to Marks's 5.
-Nico Collins hasn't played since injuring his hamstring week 1. He has been limited at practice this week.
-The Bucs are starting UDAF rookie (seriously) Jalon Daniels. We are on his rushing under. Daniels was a dual-threat at Kansas, but ran just a 4.65 40.
-We have both QBs going under their passing yardage in the Bengals/Jags game. Both defenses have been quite good this year.
-I hate betting against Parker Washington. I'm going to, but I don't like it.
-We're on Kyren Williams's over again. Last week he hit his over in the 2nd quarter.
-We're on Ollie Gordan's over, RB for the Dolphins. He's stepping into a lead role with De’Von Achane (ACL) out for the season. The matchup against the Vikings is zero fun.
