First and Thirty’s Week 4 Power Ratings: Where the Market, PFF, FPI, and DVOA Agree — and Where They Don’t

The number 1 spot may feel aggressive for the 1-2 Rams, but the data sources are designed to NOT overreact to win loss records. The market has them at number 1, due mainly to the fact that they are 3-point road favorites to the Eagles. They are the preseason favorite and should be getting Puka Nacua (hip) back soon. On the defensive side of the ball, DT Kobie Turner and S Quentin Lake are having fantastic seasons.

FPI is the low outlier on the Rams; the other three sources are within 0.30 points.

The Bills turned the ball over 5 times against the Chargers. They tried their hardest to lose. They failed.

All four sources are within 1.36 points.

The 49ers are one of five teams in the NFL that are still undefeated. I'm sure you'll all be stunned to hear that a Kyle Shanahan led offense is 1st in offensive EPA/play.

The four sources span 4.79 points, from FPI at the high end to Market at the low end.

Despite giving up 33 to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, the Seahawks defense is still 1st in EPA/play. Outside of 2 turnover worthy plays, Sam Darnold played well since returning from his glute injury. JSN is unstoppable.

All four sources are within 1.46 points.

The Chiefs are 7th in offensive EPA/play and 5th in defensive EPA/play. Pat Mahomes is 2nd in PFF grades among QBs.

All four sources are within 1.39 points.

Zay Flowers has only run 25 routes this season, but he leads the league with a comically high 9.36 yards/route run. As he gets healthy, it will be interesting to see what kind of season he has. As of now, the Ravens offense is 3rd in EPA/play.

The widest gap between sources is 2.03 points.

The Jaguars have been fantastic on both sides of the ball - they are 6th in offensive EPA/play and 4th in defensive EPA/play.

FPI is the high outlier on the Jaguars; the other three sources are within 0.81 points.

The defense continues to be the issue. They are 29th in EPA/play, 28th in success rate, dead last in explosive play rate, 30th in red zone conversion rate, and 31st in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. The good news is they're 1st in missed tackle rate (8.2%), so at least they're bringing down the players gaining copious amounts of yards on them.

All four sources are within 1.00 points.

The offense badly needs Nico Collins (hammy) back this week. They're 0-3 with the Cowboys coming up next.

The four sources span 2.72 points, from Market at the high end to FPI at the low end.

The Cowboys offense is 4th in EPA/play and success rate, but 25th in explosive play-rate. The defense is dead-last in EPA/play, success rate, and third down conversion rate. Outside of Caleb Downs, nobody should be happy with their play.

The four sources span 3.55 points, from FPI at the high end to PFF at the low end.

Cincy is 9th in offensive EPA/play and 6th in defensive EPA/play. Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe have given the Bengals an actual defensive line. On offense, RT Amarius Mims is ascending toward elite territory.

The four sources span 2.67 points, from Market at the high end to PFF at the low end.

An outstanding win over the Rams that definitely wasn't because of a bullshit defensive pass interference call. They're 2-1, but the offense is 25th in EPA/play.

All four sources are within 1.06 points.

Well, they just lost got their ass handed to them by Case Keenum on national television, so that's far from ideal. The roster is too talented to panic, but the Eagles have real problems to solve. Rookie Makai Lemon is sitting at a pathetic 0.4 yards per route run.

FPI is the low outlier on the Eagles; the other three sources are within 0.99 points.

The Vikings zone/blitz-heavy defensive scheme is dominating the NFL. They're 2nd in EPA/play, 1st in success rate, 1st in red zone conversion rate, 1st in third down conversion rate, and 2nd in turnovers. The problem is the offense, which could be a bigger issue if Justin Jefferson (ankle) misses time.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Vikings; the other three sources are within 0.46 points.

The Bears move up 3 spots after a convincing win against the Eagles. FPI and the market are clearly pricing them as if Caleb Williams isn't playing next week.

The four sources span 4.76 points, from PFF at the high end to Market at the low end.

The Patriots offense has been the worst in football this year. It doesn't happen that Mack Hollins is their current #1 receiver, but the real issue is Drake Maye. The first four games are an extended version of the preseason, so I'll give him one more game before declaring that he has the yips.

The four sources span 3.40 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

The Chargers offense: 28th in EPA/play, 30th in points/drive, 28th in turnovers. The defense has been mid, but at least they're 4th in turnovers! (7)

The widest gap between sources is 2.04 points.

The Packers offensive line is a disaster zone. And now Zach Bako-Bewele is on IR. At least they snagged Laken Tomlinson from the Cowboys practice squad. Suckers.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Packers; the other three sources are within 0.79 points.

The Colts avoided going 0-3 via a 19-17 win over the Texans. The problem still remains that the defense is under-performing (31st in EPA/play). At the very least, Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward both had decent games last week.

PFF is the low outlier on the Colts; the other three sources are within 0.69 points.

The Steelers overhauled the right side of their offensive line. RG Spencer Anderson and RT Dylan Cook are out, RG Brock Hoffman and RT Max Iheanachor (rookie 1st rounder, 21st overall) are in. The early results are promising - the line was much improved in week 3. It couldn't get much worse, but both Hoffman and Iheanachor were impressive.

The widest gap between sources is 1.75 points.

3-0, 21st in the power rankings. A painful reminder that early-season win/loss records are noisy. The good news - Brock Bowers is fucking back. He ran a route on 40/44 dropbacks (most on the team): 55 total snaps (1 backfield, 9 inline, 19 slot, 26 wide). 3.31 YPRR. 12 targets, 10 catches, 116 yards, 1 touchdown

All four sources are within 0.53 points.

The Panthers offense is 10th in EPA/play, 6th in explosive play right, and 9th in red zone conversion rate. The problem? They're 22nd in third down conversion rate, which does tend to be noisy. The defense is 14th in EPA/play, 9th in success rate, and 9th in explosive play rate. The problem? They're 23rd in third down conversion rate, which does tend to be noisy. Make of that what you will.

All four sources are within 0.90 points.

Chase Young looks fantastic, but there's simply too many issues on the defensive side of the ball. On offense, they badly need Jordan Tyson.

The four sources span 4.21 points, from FPI at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

The Falcons defense is somehow top 10 in virtually every advanced metric that I care about. I'm expecting them to regress.

The four sources span 4.73 points, from PFF at the high end to DAVE at the low end.

No Jayden Daniels, and the defense is ass.

The four sources span 3.50 points, from DAVE at the high end to Market at the low end.

The Jets are 12th in EPA/play on both offense and defense. Preseason expectations are bringing them to the bottom of the list, not performance.

The widest gap between sources is 2.46 points.

Baker Mayfield is hurt. In comes Jalon Daniels, a UDFA rookie who spent 6 years at Kansas. At Kansas, Daniels had 1,383 career dropbacks, completed 61.1% of his passes, gained 7.7 YPA, and had a 67:31 TD:INT ratio. He's small and runs a 4.65 40. Enjoy.

The sources are sharply divided on the Buccaneers: the highest and lowest ratings are 5.68 points apart. DAVE is highest and FPI is lowest.

The Cardinals offense is fine - the offensive line is solid and there are plenty of weapons. The problem is strictly on defense - 28th in EPA/play, 29th in success rate, 28th in explosive play rate, 26th in red zone conversion rate.. you get the point.

The four sources span 4.63 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.

Jamesis Winston leads the league in tight window throws at 24.5%. That's 3.4% clear of second place (Jared Goff). The king is fucking back.

The four sources span 4.10 points, from PFF at the high end to FPI at the low end.

Carnell Tate is at 1.4 yards/route run. Like most rookie wide receivers, he's struggling.

All four sources are within 1.29 points.

The Browns are 2-1, yet none of the source rankings have them higher than 28. The offense is 23rd in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, 30th in explosive play-rate, and 26th in points per drive.

DAVE is the low outlier on the Browns; the other three sources are within 0.58 points.

De'Von Achane, the last hope for the Dolphins offense, has torn his ACL.

The four sources span 2.53 points, from DAVE at the high end to PFF at the low end.