Week 5 Prop Bets

FIRST AND THIRTY

Week 5 Prop Bets

· Week 5 2025,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

Sunday Morning
Isaiah Bond o25.5 receiving yards -130 (BetMGM): Bond is a rookie UDFA who had day 2 talent, but fell completely out of the draft due to off-field issues. When healthy, he was a productive receiver at both Texas and Alabama. Despite the tough matchup against Minnesota, Bond has snap-rates of 50%+ the last two weeks and is routinely projected closer to 40 yards. This number sits at 28.5 on Caesars and FanDuel and 29.5 on DraftKings.

Sunday 1PM
Jakobi Meyers u62.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Meyers may get some extra looks with Brock Bowers (knee) currently not practicing, but this is a great number. We're seeing 58.5 at DK, 59.5 at FD, and 61.5 at Caesars.

Derrick Henry u19.5 rushing attempts -117 (DraftKings): The 1-3 Ravens are sneaky 2.5-point dogs on the road against the Texans. Henry hasn't hit this number once this year, and with the Ravens unlikely to win big, it does "feel" too high. This is backed by the projections, with Henry consistently projected in the 16-17 carry range.

Jalen Hurts u42.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): The rushing lines are a bit sporadic on this one - you can find Hurts at 39.5 at DK and 38.5 on FanDuel and Caesars. Hurts is up against a talented Eagles defense where the game features a low total (43.5).

Tony Pollard u65.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM): Pollard's Cowboys are 7.5-point dogs on the road against the Cardinals, who have the 7th best rushing DVOA in football.

Bryce Young o11.5 rushing yards -120 (BetMGM): After rushing for 40 yards week 1, Young has rushed for 2, 3, and 3 yards. Perfect time to grab his over. Young is facing a Dolphins defense that has given up 20+ rushing yards in all 4 of their games this season.

Sunday 4PM
Noah Fant u23.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Fant was inactive last week with a concussion. In week 3, he operated in a 3-way committee at tight end, with Drew Sample (16) and Mike Gesicki (13) running more routes than Fant's 12. Fant's Bengals have a tough matchup against Detroit, who's defense ranks 5th in DVOA.

Jake Browning u33.5 pass attempts -114 (FanDuel): Even with the Bengals game-script leaning pass heavy due to them being 10.5 point dogs, the projections are consistently below this number.

Sunday Night Football
Kayshon Boutte o26.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Since grabbing 6 balls for 103 yards in the season-opener, Boutte has been a disappointment, compiling yards of 16 (week 2), 28 (week 3), and 18 (week 4). Even still, the Patriots are large dogs to the Bills (8 points) with a high total (49). Boutte's usage is exactly what we're looking for - his snap rates are 79.4%, 72.7%, 74.6%, and 68.8% this season.

Monday Night Football
Travis Etienne o61.5 rushing yards -118 (BetMGM): This number is at 65.5 on DK and FD and 64.5 at Caesars. Although the game-script isn't great for the Jags - they are 3.5-point home dogs to the Chiefs - KC has been one of the worst defenses this year against the run. Meanwhile, the Jags rank 2nd in rushing DVOA.