Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size. I'm also going to be reviewing what the lines closed at and compare that to where we bet them. We typically bet games on Tuesday, and have stressed over the years how important it is to get your damn bets in early. Dom and I have both noticed that lines tend to move toward the model, meaning we're grabbing value early in the week that is no longer available as the market wises up. I think it'll be fun to actually track that, if nothing else to see if Dom and I are full of shit.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
Jacksonville (+2.0) @ Indianapolis
Line closed: IND -1.5, line moved toward the model (although mostly an irrelevant movement)
The Jags jumped out to an early 14-3 lead, then decided to stop playing defense against the Colts, who have been one of the least efficient offenses in football this season. Their offensive DVOA is somehow worse than the Bears. They were unable to stop Michael Pittman (13 catches for 134 yards) or Deon Jackson, a 3rd string running back who caught 10 balls for 79 yards. Trevor Lawrence played well, but it wasn't enough to keep pace.
Final score: Indy 34, Jacksonville 27
Minnesota @ Miami (+3.0)
Line closed: MIN -3.5, line moved away from the model
We had some unfortunate injury news swing our way on this one. When we made the bet last Tuesday, the information on hand was that Teddy Bridgewater was never actually diagnoses with a concussion, and therefore was expected to clear protocol and play. He did in fact clear protocol, but the Dolphins elected to make him the back up -- perhaps exercising additional caution after the Tua debacle. I have no idea how one can be healthy enough to be the backup but not the starter, but that's a debate for another day. The only reason why I'm mentioning this is it explains why the line moved away from the model off a key number.
As it would have it, Teddy ended up coming in for Skylar Thompson, who injured his thumb. The Dolphins were actually leading 3-0 at that point -- the end effect of the injury news didn't actually hurt us (just Skylar's thumb). Teddy played decently well, but had two turnovers -- one of which led directly to a Vikings field goal. Jaylen Waddle also fumbled at his own 26, which Minnesota was able to convert to a touchdown just 2 plays later. Miami's banged up secondary was able to keep Kirk Cousins in check, who averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt. Dalvin Cook had a lot more success on the ground, averaging 5.9 yards per carry over 13 attempts. In the end, Miami couldn't keep up.
Final score: Minnesota 24, Miami 16
Cincinnati @ New Orleans (+2.0)
Line closed: CIN -3.0, line moved away from the model
We had some further injuries go against us. I figured Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) were certainly out, but thought Chris Olave (concussion) would have had a chance to play. It also seemed like Jameis Winston (back/ankle) had a chance to return. None of them ended up playing. Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) also missed, but that was expected.
The Saints still played well, even winning 26-24 with 3:42 left in the 4th. A quick 3 and out forced the Saints to punt, giving the Bengals possession at their own 40 with 1:57 to go. The very next play was a Ja'Marr Chase 60 yards touchdown reception. The Saints had another shot to score on their next drive, but ended up turning it over on downs. That was a tough one.
Final score: Cincinnati 30, New Orleans 26
Baltimore (-5.0) @ NY Giants
Line closed: BAL -5.5, line moved toward the model (mostly an irrelevant move)
As you may have noticed, we've been continuously fading the Giants. They aren't even close to as good as their 5-1 record would not indicate, and it doesn't surprise me at all that the model would pick on a team that isn't nearly as good as their record. This tweet does a great job explaining how bad it is for the Giants.
Unfortunately, the results aren't going in our direction. The Giants beat the damn Ravens outright. Lamar Jackson was a shell of himself, JK Dobbins averaged 2.1 yards per attempt before getting injured, and the defense had issues generating pressure. Mark Andrews was obviously awesome, because he's Mark Andrews, but it was a pitiful performance by the Ravens.
Final score: NY Giants 24, Ravens 20
Arizona @ Seattle (+2.5)
Line closed: ARI -2.5, line remained the same
At the very least, we had Geno Smith to bail us out. Ok, he wasn't THAT great, only averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, but it was more than enough against the Cardinals. Arizona had issues moving the ball on the Seahawks defense, who is one of the worst in football. At least they have DeAndre Hopkins coming back.
Final score: Seattle 19, Arizona 9
Sides recap: We naturally aren't happy with a 1-4 week, which adds onto our already losing record. I'm not even a tiny bit concerned -- we had a losing record after week 6 last week as well, and ended up 33-25 on the season. I think Dom has done a great job proving that our process is a winning. Trust it, the results will follow.
Kenny Pickett u237.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Pickett ended up getting injured and had to leave the game. He threw for just 67 yards. For whatever it's worth, Tribusky and Pickett combined for 193 yards. WIN +1 unit
Najee Harris u45.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): I had a lot of close loses last week. This week went far better. Harris finished with 42 yards. WIN +1 unit
Mark Ingram u23.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM): Ingram finished with 46 yards. LOSS -1.1 units
Marquez Callaway o29.5 receiving yards -105 (BetMGM): Once Olave was ruled out, this one became easy. Callaway had 36 yards. WIN +1 unit
Deebo Samuel o5.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel): Deebo caught 7 balls, that beautiful bastard. WIN +1.26 units
Pat Mahomes u298.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): Betting against Pat Mahomes is never fun. This was no exception. LOSS -1.15 units
Kyler Murray does not throw an INT +100 (BetMGM): Kyler Murray did, in fact, throw an interception. PFF charted him with 3 turnover worthy plays. Against the Seahawks. He should probably watch more tape. LOSS -1 unit
Stef Diggs o7.5 receptions +115 (DraftKings): Diggs caught 10 balls, he is in fact good. WIN +1.15 units
JuJu Smith-Schuster u4.5 receptions +116 (FanDuel): JuJu caught 5 balls. LOSS -1 unit
Rondale Moore o5.5 receptions +125 (BetMGM): Moore only gained 49 yards, but caught 6 balls. WIN +1.25 units
Props recap: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Season total: 16-20-1
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Season total: 30-31, -1.37 units