Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
This week we were unfortunately only able to grab one game. Why? I haven't the first damn clue. Ask the model. The way we typically select bets is based heavily on the "strength" that the model gives. If it's above 3, we bet it, and have units assigned based on how much the model likes the bet. Between this year and last year, a strength of 3 has been the top 25% of all games that the model has evaluated. It's likely that it just happened to be a week without much of an edge, but we'll keep an eye on it and adjust if necessary.
Washington (+7.0) over Kansas City
Regular readers (hi Dad!) will know how afraid I am betting against the Chiefs. That never stops me from doing it, but each bet always takes years off my life. Coupled with copious amounts of alcohol consumed during football Sundays, that's not an idea situation health wise. But I like money too much to care.
Betting against the Chiefs is tough since they're capable of scoring butt-loads (technical term) of points extremely quickly. Even if you're winning, you never have the feeling like the bets in the bag. This was a similar story, with the Football Team leading 13-10 at the half, we effectively had a 10-point lead on the spread. Then the Chiefs did Chiefs things, scoring 3 touchdowns in the second half. Unfortunately, the Football Teams offense went stagnant and finished the game with 13 measly points. I miss Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Final score: Kansas City 31, Washington 13 (lost 1 unit)
Week 6: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game (0-1, -1 unit)
Season total: 7-9, -3 units