DomModel is officially live for Week 4. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its projected spread differs meaningfully from the market. From there, I review each qualifying game and decide whether the model's edge is enough to warrant an actual FirstAndThirty recommendation. This blog focuses on games where the model gave a cover probability greater than 52.5%.
Recommended Bets
BET — BUF -6.5
Patriots @ Bills
Cover Probability: 53.3%
The Patriots have massively let down their pre-season expectations. This is mostly anectodical, but I often see the model backing those teams as the public overacts, but this time around we're predicting that the Patriots woes continue. The bet not only clears the cover probability, but we're also on the right side of 7. There are some books laying 7, so be sure to shop around.
BET — JAX +2.5
Jaguars @ Bengals
Cover probability: 52.8%
My power rankings aren't quite out yet, but I'll have the Jaguars higher than the Bengals (7 vs 12). The model doesn't care about my power rankings, so that's a completely irrelevant point, but it's my blog and I'm making it anyway. The Jaguars have been fantastic on both sides of the ball - sitting at 6th in offensive EPA/play and 4th in defensive EPA/play. You can currently get this at Caesars +2.5 -103.
BET — SF -3.0
Broncos @ 49ers
Cover probability: 54.7%
Per FPI and DAVE, the 49ers are the best team in football. I'll have them at 3rd on my power rankings when they come out. The Broncos are at 11. Denver is coming off a quality win against the Rams (cough bullshit DPI cough), but their offense is a woeful 25th in EPA/play.
Passes
PASS — WAS +3.5
Colts @ Commanders
Cover probability: 53.0%
This game is in London, which means the model is improperly giving Washington home field advantage. Oh yeah, and Jayden Daniels is hurt. Hard pass.
PASS — TB +3.5
Packers @ Buccaneers
Cover probability: 57.0%
If you see the model throwing a cover probability of 57%, you should immediately realize something is up. Mayfield dislocated his right thumb last week, and he's out a minimum of 3 weeks. We are passing.
This is exciting news. We are guaranteed not to lose money on the Bucs this week.
