Week 6 Prop Bets

· Week 6 2026,Prop Bets

My prop bet card for week 6 is below. This is a data driven process with manual review. If you're curious about how the model works, read this article.

Some non-actionable observations:

-We continue to fade everything Bo Nix. His passing yardage prop is down to 199.5 against a very good Seahawks defense. We're still going after the under.
-The model doesn't have a moral compass (one of it's strengths tbh), but it does continue to fade anything Deshaun Watson.

-CJ Stroud's passing prop under looks like a no-brainer. All 4 projection sources have a mean line under 257.5. The Jags defense is quite good.
-For the third week in a row, we are fading Jalon Daniels rushing under.
-I know he's playing the Bears, but Drake London's 95.5 line does feel sky high. FTN has his mean projection at 84.95.

WEEK 6 PLAYER PROPS

Reviewed plays from First & Thirty
20Total Plays
3Overs
17Unders
20Model Picks
0F&T Picks

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos

Thursday · 8:15 PM ET
Passing Yards
Bo Nix · QB
Under 199.5
DraftKings · -112
4 of 4 models
Receiving Yards
Troy Franklin · WR
Under 18.5
DraftKings · -116
4 of 4 models

SUNDAY 1:00 PM

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday · 9:30 AM ET
Passing Yards
C.J. Stroud · QB
Under 257.5
DraftKings · -113
4 of 4 models
Rushing Yards - RB
Bhayshul Tuten · RB
Under 63.5
DraftKings · -109
3 of 4 models
Receiving Yards
Josh Cameron · WR
Under 15.5
DraftKings · -108
4 of 4 models

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday · 1:00 PM ET
Rushing Yards - QB
Deshaun Watson · QB
Under 28.5
DraftKings · -107
3 of 4 models

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Sunday · 1:00 PM ET
Receiving Yards
Drake London · WR
Under 95.5
DraftKings · -111
4 of 4 models

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Sunday · 1:00 PM ET
Passing Yards
Geno Smith · QB
Under 221.5
DraftKings · -113
4 of 4 models
Rushing Yards - RB
Braelon Allen · RB
Under 67.5
DraftKings · -110
4 of 4 models

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday · 1:00 PM ET
Rushing Yards - QB
Jalon Daniels · QB
Under 37.5
DraftKings · -110
3 of 4 models

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday · 1:00 PM ET
Rushing Yards - QB
Daniel Jones · QB
Over 6.5
FanDuel · -114
4 of 4 models
Rushing Yards - RB
Jonathan Taylor · RB
Under 89.5
DraftKings · -112
3 of 4 models
Tony Pollard · RB
Over 51.5
DraftKings · -115
3 of 4 models
Receiving Yards
Keenan Allen · WR
Under 43.5
FanDuel · -114
4 of 4 models

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Sunday · 4:05 PM ET
Passing Yards
Jacoby Brissett · QB
Under 243.5
DraftKings · -111
4 of 4 models
Receiving Yards
Jalen Brooks · WR
Under 19.5
DraftKings · -115
4 of 4 models

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday · 4:25 PM ET
Rushing Yards - QB
Justin Herbert · QB
Under 25.5
DraftKings · -115
3 of 4 models
Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce · TE
Under 54.5
DraftKings · -110
4 of 4 models

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday · 8:20 PM ET
Passing Yards
Dak Prescott · QB
Under 278.5
FanDuel · -114
4 of 4 models

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers

Monday · 8:15 PM ET
Rushing Yards - QB
Jayden Daniels · QB
Over 35.5
FanDuel · -114
3 of 4 models
Lines and prices shown are from the frozen Week 6 reviewed snapshot and may have changed. For informational purposes only. Last updated: 2026-10-15T16:32:02.854944+00:00