DomModel is officially live for Week 7. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its projected spread differs meaningfully from the market. From there, I review each qualifying game and decide whether the model's edge is enough to warrant an actual FirstAndThirty recommendation. This blog focuses on games where the model gave a cover probability greater than 52.5%.
Recommended Bets
BET — NE +3.0
Patriots @ Bears
Cover probability: 54.1%
We start off with a compelling Thursday Night Matchup, with the Patriots (power ranked 10) travel to Chicago to take on the Bears (ranked 9th).
The Patriots have had some injury issues this year, but they are getting healthier in some areas. They'll likely be without LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (hammy). They already lost RG Mike Onwenu (ankle) for the season. Backup guard Ben Brown (knee) was injured last week and isn't practicing. RT Morgan Moses (foot) was injured last week, but he is practicing (albeit limited). A little bit of a mess there. They did get back both AJ Brown and Christian Gonzalez last week, and #2 corner Carlton Davis (neck) returned to practice Wednesday. The Patriots (15th in EPA/play) have an aggressive defense, ranking 2nd in man coverage rate and 7th in blitz rate. Having both their top two corners healthy is imperative for their scheme.
The Bears offense is 9th in EPA/play, although they jump up to 5th if you only include Caleb Williams games. They have a quality offensive line, elite weaponry, and one of the best playcallers in football (Ben Johnson). Their defense is 12th in EPA/play, but there's several areas of concern. They're 6th in blitz rate, but just 16th in pressure rate. They did get back slot CB Kyler Gordan last week, but it's still overall a weak seconadry.
BET — PIT -3.0
Steelers @ Saints
Cover probability: 53.2%
Pittsburgh clears our review threshold, and we're recommending PIT -3.0.
This game is interesting, because it's in London, so the model is improperly giving the Saints homefield advantage. It still wants us to take the Steelers.
Tyler Shough is having a fantastic season, but the Saints offense is still 20th in EPA/play due to lack of playmakers. The offensive line is well below average, and the only receiving option is Chris Olave. The running back room is dreadful. The Steelers defensive line should be a mismatch for the Saints offensive line.
BET — SF -4.5
49ers @ Falcons
Cover probability: 56.1%
San Francisco has the strongest model signal this week. We're recommending SF -4.5.
We're back on the 49ers. Mike Evans (Achilles) is apparently ok, although his Achilles feels like a ticking time bomb, we only need it to hold up for this game. The offense remains the best in the league by any statistic worth giving a shit about. The Falcons defense has been a pleasant surprise (13th in EPA/play). They're 20th in blitz rate, but 2nd in pressure rate.
The Falcons offense has been far better with Michael Penix Jr under center - With Michael Penix on the field, ATL gains +0.526 EPA/play and +10.2% success rate. That said, he still isn't elevating them to any elite levels, they're just less shitty then they were without him.
Passes
PASS — LAR -4.5
Rams @ Raiders
Cover probability: 53.1%
Los Angeles clears our review threshold, but we're passing on LAR -4.5.
PASS — PHI +4.5
Cowboys @ Eagles
Cover probability: 54.2%
Philadelphia clears our review threshold, but we're passing on PHI +4.5.
