NY Giants @ Tampa Bay
Injury updates:
-Bucs WR Antonio Brown (ankle) remains out.
-Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski (back) will return for the first time since week 8.
-Bucs DT Vita Vea (knee) is doubtful.
-Giants WR Sterling Shepard (quad) is out.
-Giants RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) will return for the first time since week 5.
-Giants CB Logan Ryan (Reserve/COVID-19) is out.
Spread: The spread currently sits at 11.5. When we ran the model last Tuesday, the line was 11 and the model thought that line was essentially perfect. Ruling: don't fucking bet it.
Total: The total sits at 49.5 after opening at 51. 44% of the tickets and 75% of the cash are on the under, and that's where I'd lean.
Prop bets:
Tom Brady o2.5 passing TDs +120 (BetMGM): Brady's projection is at 2.4. You all know by now how much I love the juice. He's gone over that number in 5/9 games this year, and gets Gronkowski back from injury. Despite essentially only playing 3 games this season, Gronk has 5 end zone targets, which is 3rd on the team behind Godwin/Evans, who have 6 each.
Leonard Fournette u3.5 receptions +130 (Caesars): Fournette is projected right at 3.5. He'll have both Geo Bernard and RoJo competing for RB targets, and the Giants are 5th in DVOA against running backs as receivers.
Saquon Barkley o42.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings/FanDuel): The market may be a bit bearish on Barkley -- he hasn't played since week 5 when he injured his ankle. Barkley practiced all week and had a week 10 bye to rest up as well, and appears ready to go. His projection is closer to 55. This number is simply too low.
Oh, and always bet Tom Brady over 0.5 a yard. Always.
