Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
Cincinnati @ Las Vegas (+1.0)
The 4PM slate was spent watching two of our bets get absolutely slaughtered. The Raiders were thoroughly out-played by the Bengals. Joe Mixon carried the ball 30 god damn times for 123 yards and 2 TDs. The passing game for Cincy wasn't particularly impressive, Joe Burrow had just 5.1 yards per attempt on 35 drop backs. However, outside of Darren Waller (7 catches for 116 yards) the Raiders had zero offensive output. That allowed Mixon and the Bengals to run away with it.
Final score: Cincy 32, Las Vegas 13 (lost 2 units)
Dallas (+2.5) @ Kansas City
We had some tough injury luck with this one, starting with losing Amari Cooper earlier in the week (COVID-19) and then CeeDee Lamb in game (concussion). I have no idea how the Chiefs defense is suddenly playing at such an insane level, I just know it isn't sustainable. It didn't help that Dak had one of his worst games of the season, he averaged just 5.0 yards through the air and had 2 turnover worthy passes (both of which were picked off). His receivers also dropped 4 passes. The Chiefs offense wasn't particularly great either, but they didn't need to be to cover.
Final score: Kansas City 19, Dallas 9 (lost 1 unit)
Pittsburgh (+6.0) over LA Chargers
Onto Sunday Night Football. The Steelers had a slew of injuries on defense (TJ Watt, Joe Haden, Minkah Fitzpatrick) and seemed incapable of stopping the Chargers offense. When things broke down, Justin Herbert was able to take off and run -- he finished with 9 runs for 90 yards. Ben Roethlisberger had an OK game, but he clearly wasn't going to be able to keep up with the Chargers. But we had some serious luck on our side in this one.
For starters, Ben had 3 turnover worthy plays and zero INTs. Then the Steelers had a blocked punt that gave them the ball on the Chargers 3 yard line, which they quickly converted into a touchdown. Then Justin Herbert threw a bad interception at his own 15 yard line that Camerson Sutton took to the Chargers 4. After Pittsburgh scored another touchdown, that game was suddenly tied. On the next drive, the Chargers went for it on 4th and 1 at their own 34, and the Steelers stuffed Austin Ekeler to turn the ball over on downs. Somehow, someway, the Steelers weren't just covering, they were winning out-right. The Chargers did redeem themselves by taking the ensuing drive 75 yards on just 3 plays for a touchdown, but at that point covering was never in doubt.
It was certainly a game where we needed luck to go our way, but damn is it fun to win those games.
Final score: LA Chargers 41, Pittsburgh 37 (won 1 unit)
Things also ended poorly here. We ended up down 3.74 units. If on mobile, rotate your phone to see the full table.
Units are calculated as follows: each prop has a 1 unit wager on it. If the wager has dog odds (i.e., the line column has a positive number), then we're risking 1 unit to win the line divided by 100. If the wager is a favorite (i.e., the line column has a negative number), we're risking the line divided by 100 to win 1 unit. Whatever a "unit," is for you, multiply that by 8.02, and that's how much you would have won tailing these bets. If you're interested in getting into the prop game, always check this site so you can easily compare lines across multiple books to get the best price.
Some interesting nuggets from the props:
- Deebo Samuel only had 1 catch, but had 8 carries for 79 yards. What a weird one.
- Zack Moss air balled for zero catches despite the game script leading toward more passing for Buffalo. That was a nice way to win a +152.
- Tua ended with 6 yards. He actually was at 7, but a kneel down brought him down to 6. Brutal.
- Sunday Night was fun. Monday night was not.
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (1-2, lost 2 units)
Season total: 13-13, +2 units
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, lost 3.74 units)
Season total: 15-12, +4.28 units