Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Tennessee (+3.0) @ Green Bay
Line closed: GB -3.5, line moved away from the model
We got started on a high note on TNF before this week went to utter shit. The Titans led this game throughout. They had issues getting the run game going, but Ryan Tannehill was effective through the air, completing 22/27 passes (81.5%) for 333 yards (12.3 average) and 2 TDs. Aaron Rodgers was dreaful on the other side, gaining just 5.8 yards per attempt through the air.
Final score: Tennessee 27, Green Bay 17
Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Indianapolis
Line closed: PHI -6.5, line remained the same
The Eagles offense was less than impressive. They fumbled 4 times (losing 2) and didn't score a touchdown till the 4th quarter. They won the game, we weren't ever close to covering.
Final score: Philadelphia 17, Indianapolis 16
NY Jets (+3.5) @ New England
Line closed: NE -3.5, line remained the same
The Patriots were the better team. They gained 5.0 yards per play vs the Jets 2.1, had an game DVOA of 60.1% vs the Jets -60.5%, and an EPA/play of -0.18 to the Jets -0.39.
But still, the Jets defense played well, sacking Mac Jones on 6 occasions. Thanks to two missed field goals within 50 yards by the normally reliable Nick Folk, the Jets remained tied at 3 throughout. With 5 seconds left in the game, the Jets were forced to punt. This put us in a great spot -- anything other than a New England touchdown in OT means we cover since we had the 3.5 hook. However, Marcus Jones took the punt 84 yards for a touchdown, ending the game.
Final score: New England 10, NY Jets 3
Carolina @ Baltimore (-12.5)
Line closed: BAL -12.5, line remained the same
The Ravens offense wasn't nearly as effective as it needed to be -- gaining 3.8 yards per attempt through the ground (including just 2.8 from Lamar Jackson) and 6.3 yards per attempt through the air wasn't going to cut it. The Panthers offense predictably struggled, but we couldn't get enough points from Baltimore to cover.
Final score: Baltimore 13, Carolina 3
Las Vegas @ Denver (-2.5)
Line closed: DEN -3, line moved toward the model
I want to blame Russ Wilson, that little shit, but he wasn't the issue. He gained 8.0 yards through the air, completed 77.4% of his passes, had a PFF grade of 79.0, and didn't commit any turnovers. The issue was the Broncos defensive line losing in the trenches to a bad Raiders offensive line. Derek Carr was under pressure on just 28.9% of dropbacks and Josh Jacobs was able to run wild, gaining 109 yards on 24 carries (4.5 average).
Thanks mostly to Wilson, the Broncos were able to keep a lead. They were up 16-13 with 1:43 to go in the 4th, just needing one first down to end it. Of course, they couldn't. Then of course the Raiders kicked a field goal to send it to OT. Of course the Raiders won the coin toss. Of course the Raiders won in OT on a touchdown on the first drive.
Final score: Las Vegas 22, Denver 16
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (+4.5)
Line closed: CIN -3.5, line moved toward the model
We were in good shape for most of this one, with the Steelers leading 20-17 at the half. The offense went completely stagnant in the 2nd half, only managing a field goal (which came off an INT) and a garbage time touchdown. They were unable to stop Tee Higgins, who had 9 catches for 148 yards. Joe Burrow gained 9.1 yards per attempt (355 total yards). He did throw 2 picks, but neither was his fault. In the end, the Steelers stagnant offense allowed the Bengals to pull away.
Final score: Cincinnati 37, Pittsburgh 30
San Francisco @ Arizona (+8.0)
Line closed: SF -10, line moved away from the model due to Kyler Murray being ruled out.
Yeah, the 49ers rolled. Let's move onto Turkey Day.
Final score: San Francisco 38, Arizona 10
Sides recap: Brutal, a 1-6 week. I'm being told a drunk Dom was up till 3AM Monday Night crunching the numbers. A big reason for our struggles has been DVOA's worse performance this year compared to last. DVOA explained 83% of variance in midweek spreads last season. This year it's at 61%. The good news is apparently my power rankings are still doing great. The process hasn't changed, and we're still expecting positive regression, but it's been a tough ride.
AJ Dillon u40.5 rushing yards -130 (PointBet): Game script kept the Packers from running. Dillon had 6 carries for 13 yards. WIN +1 unit
Ryan Tannehill o181.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): Tanny crushed it. He finished with 333 yards. WIN +1 unit
Marcus Mariota o168.5 passing yards -125 (BetMGM): Mariota had 131 yards. LOSS -1.25 units
Baker Mayfield o168.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Mayfield had 196 yards. WIN +1 unit
Davis Mills o219.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): Mills finished with 169 yards. LOSS -1.15 units
David Montgomery u70.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): Close one, Montgomery had 67 yards. WIN +1 unit
Miles Sanders o59.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): Philly continues to disappoint me. Sanders had 47 yards. LOSS -1.1 units.
Justice Hill u29.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Justice Hill had... 30 yards. Gross. LOSS -1.15 units.
Jonathan Taylor u87.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Taylor finished with 84 yards. WIN +1 unit.
Amon Ra-St. Brown u77.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings): Another close one, ARSB had 76 receiving yards. WIN +1 unit.
Allen Robinson o4.5 receptions +130 (BetMGM): Allen Robinson finished with 4 catches before getting hurt. LOSS -1 unit.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling o44.5 receiving yards -113 (FanDuel): Pat Mahomes threw ofr 322 yards. Only 18 went to MVS. LOSS -1.13 units
Prop results: 6-6, -0.78 units
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Season total: 31-36-1
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Season total: 55-61, -8.37 units