Week 6 Player Props Recap: A Week of Inches
Week 6 was a mixed bag for First & Thirty's player prop recommendations. We finished 10-10, losing 1.07 units for a -5.3% ROI across 20 wagers.
Our passing and receiving yardage props performed well enough to turn a profit, but quarterback rushing props proved costly. And in several cases, the difference between a winning and losing week was literally a yard or less.
The Good: Passing and Receiving Unders
Our passing yardage props finished 3-2, producing +0.67 units.
Fading Bo Nix was, once again, our most comfortable win of the week, finishing with just 107 passing yards against an under of 199.5. Jacoby Brissett (218 yards, under 243.5) and Dak Prescott (258 yards, under 278.5) also cashed.
Receiving yardage was our strongest category, finishing 4-2 for +1.60 units.
Josh Cameron finished with zero receiving yards against our under 15.5, while Troy Franklin managed just two yards against an under of 18.5. Drake London also comfortably cleared our under 95.5, finishing with 62 yards.
Travis Kelce provided a much tighter win, finishing with 53 yards against our under 54.5.
The Bad: Quarterback Rushing Props
Quarterback rushing was the clear problem area this week.
We finished 1-4 in the category, losing 3.12 units.
The frustrating part wasn't just the losses. It was how close several of them were.
Deshaun Watson: Under 28.5 — finished with 29 yards. LOSS.
Justin Herbert: Under 25.5 — finished with 26 yards. LOSS.
Jalon Daniels: Under 37.5 — finished with 39 yards. LOSS.
Three losses by a combined two yards.
Daniel Jones provided the lone bright spot, comfortably exceeding his 6.5-yard rushing line with 30 yards.
Running Backs Split the Difference
Our running back rushing props finished 2-2, losing 0.21 units.
Tony Pollard delivered with 76 rushing yards against our over 51.5, while Bhayshul Tuten stayed comfortably under 63.5 with 39 yards.
Jonathan Taylor (94 yards against under 89.5) and Braelon Allen (78 yards against under 67.5) accounted for the two losses.
