Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
This week, the model didn't find any value in the sides bets it analyzes. However, we recommended several prop bets from the TNF, Sunday main slate, SNF, and MNF. In total, we went 10-4, winning 8.02 units. I also put a ruling of "lean under," on all 3 primetime games. That went 2-1 (SNF went over).
| Prop | Book | Line | Result | Units |
| Sammy Watkins u2.5 receptions | FanDuel | 118 | win | 1.18 |
| Myles Gaskin u3.5 receptions | FanDuel | 114 | win | 1.14 |
| Salvon Ahmed o8.5 receiving yards | FanDuel | -105 | win | 1 |
| Trevor Siemian u17.5 completions | FanDuel | 105 | loss | -1 |
| Michael Carter u3.5 recptions | Caesars | 140 | loss | -1 |
| Tom Brady o2.5 passing TDs | Caesars | 140 | loss | -1 |
| Trevor Lawrence u0.5 INTs | Caesars | 170 | win | 1.7 |
| Jeremy McNichols u2.5 receptions | FanDuel | 120 | win | 1.2 |
| Pat Mahomes o2.5 passing TDs | DraftKings | 170 | win | 1.7 |
| Mecole Hardman u3.5 receptions | Caesars | 110 | win | 1.1 |
| Tyreek Hill o72.5 receving yards | DraftKings | -115 | win | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp o7.5 receptions | DraftKings | -135 | win | 1 |
| Matt Stafford o2.5 passing TDs | Caesars | 155 | loss | -1 |
| Juan Jennings u20.5 receiving yards | DraftKings | -115 | win | 1 |
| Total | 8.02 |
Units are calculated as follows: each prop has a 1 unit wager on it. If the wager has dog odds (i.e., the line column has a positive number), then we're risking 1 unit to win the line divided by 100. If the wager is a favorite (i.e., the line column has a negative number), we're risking the line divided by 100 to win 1 unit. Whatever a "unit," is for you, multiply that by 8.02, and that's how much you would have won tailing these bets. If you're interested in getting into the prop game, always check this site so you can easily compare lines across multiple books to get the best price.
A few nuggets from the props
- We had a nice 1.7 unit win on Lawrence not throwing a pick, but he had two turnover worthy plays from PFF. Perhaps a bit of luck on our side.
- We had another 1.7 unit win on Mahomes going over 2.5 TD passes. He ended up with 5. That's an insane result, but +170 was equally insane value.
- I have no clue what DraftKings was smoking with that Juan Jennings line. I'm assuming they just weren't projecting properly after the news that Mohamed Sanu and JaMycal Hasty were ruled out. Either way, we'll take it.
- I ran real hot this week. Don't expect anywhere near these results regularly from me or anyone else.
I'll continue trying to post similar blogs the rest of the way, and I'll track my results here.
Sides recommendations:
Week 1: Jameis Preserves the Even Week (2-2, even)
Week 2: Thanks for Fumbling, Clyde (3-1, +4 units)
Week 3: We Lost Every Bet (0-2, -4 units)
Week 4: Monday Night Fucked Us (2-1, even)
Week 5: It's Raining On First And Thirty (0-2, -2 units)
Week 6: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game (0-1, -1 unit)
Week 7: Houston Sucks, Apparently (1-1, +1 unit)
Week 8: When the Dogs Win Outright (2-1, +3 units)
Week 9: Both Dogs Won Outright, Again (2-0, +3 units)
Week 10: Props Only (0-0, even)
Season total: 12-11, +4 units
Props recommendations:
Week 10: Props Only (10-4, +8.02 units)
