Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
Pittsburgh @ Minnesota (-3)
Both of our bets this week got off to insanely good starts, then got annoyingly close, but we pulled them both off in the end. For the Vikings, they got off to a 29-0 lead in the third quarter, thanks to a missed field goal from Pittsburgh, and INT from Big Ben, and an offensive performance that resembled a flaccid penis. Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook both looked unstoppable. But then the Steelers came roaring back, eventually cutting the lead 36-28. Luckily for us, Pittsburgh stalled on thier last drive and ran out of clock -- we were conviently aided by Steelers WR Chase Claypool celebrating a catch rather than getting back to the line of scrimmage to run another play.
Performances of note:
- Vikings RB Dalvin Cook ended with 27 carries for 205 yards (7.6 YPA) and 2 TDs. It was a game many expected him to miss with a shoulder injury. Instead, he had sexual intercourse with the Steelers defense.
- Vikings DT Michael Pierce had 3 pressures, 1 sack, 2 hurries, 1 forced fumble, and a run stop. He was a force all day in the trenches.
- Steelers CB Ahkello Witherspoon, getting extra playing time due to Joe Haden's injury, played out of his mind. Kirk Cousins had a 19.4 QB rating when targeting Witherspoon. He was targeted 9 times, but gave up just 4 catches for 43 yards and had 2 INTs, earning a PFF coverage grade of 90.5
Final score: Minnesota 36, Pittsburgh 28 (won 1 unit)
San Francisco (+1.0) over Cincinnati
Place this one firmly in the "get your damn bets in early" category. The 49ers, who we grabbed as 1 point dogs on Tuesday, closed as 2 point favorites. The 49ers got out to a 20-6 lead in the third, but then failed to get anything going on offense. The Bengals managed to put together 2 touchdown drives, evening the score. The 49ers did have a chance to end the game on their last drive, but kicker Robbie Gould missed a 47 yard field goal, sending the game into OT. The Bengals won the coin toss, electing to receive, and drove 51 yards down the field, which resulted in a 41 yard Evan McPherson field goal. That left the 49ers in a spot where they needed to get at least a field goal to keep the game going, but they had more in mind. Aided in part from a pair of long completions to Jauan Jennings (25 yards) and George Kittle (21 yards), the 49ers were driving. They eventually got down to the Cincy 12, where Brandon Aiyuk took a pass from Garoppolo for a touchdown to end it.
Performances of note:
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow was fantastic in the loss, completing 73.5% of his passes for 348 yards and 2 TDs. PFF awarded him with 5 "Big Time Throws" and a game grade of 90.6.
- 49ers TE George Kittle was ridiculous for a second straight week. He caught 13 passes on 15 targets for 151 yards and a touchdown.
- 49ers LT Trent Williams continues to put up some of the most impressive grades from PFF that we've ever seen. He had a game grade of 90.0 and is at a 99.0 on the season. He's been the best tackle in football and it isn't particularly close.
- 49ers DE Nick Bosa had 9 pressures, 7 hurries, and 2 sacks
Final score: San Francisco 26, Cincinnat 23 (won 1 unit)
Prop bets: (rotate your phone on mobile)
- How about my boy Zach Wilson failing to throw an INT despite dropping back 42 times? Ok, he still sucked and gained 4.8 yards per attempt, but we didn't bet on that. A nice 1.8 unit win.
- I am stunned Jefferson didn't hit his over. He looked unstoppable to start the game, but then the Steelers seemed to figure something out. Apparently, their game plan going in wasn't to go all in on Jefferson, when the Vikings were already without Adam Thielen. Either way, tough L.
- Cordarrelle Patterson ended up with 2 catches for 1 yard. James Robinson literally wasn't even targeted.
- Kyle Juszczyk, I forgive you and still love you.
Units are calculated as follows: each prop has a 1 unit wager on it. If the wager has dog odds (i.e., the line column has a positive number), then we're risking 1 unit to win the line divided by 100. If the wager is a favorite (i.e., the line column has a negative number), we're risking the line divided by 100 to win 1 unit. Whatever a "unit," is for you, multiply that by 5.34, and that's how much you would have won tailing these bets. If you're interested in getting into the prop game, always check this site so you can easily compare lines across multiple books to get the best price.
Week 14: Success, Finally (2-0, won 2 units)
Season total: 15-17, -2 units
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, lost 3.74 units)
Week 14: Success, Finally (8-4, won 5.34 units)
Season total: 34-31, +6.25 units