Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Buffalo @ NY Jets (+12.5)
Line closed: BUF -10.5, line moved toward the model
We've talked a lot about how fragile the Bills offense can be. With a bad offensive line and weapons struggling outside of Stef Diggs, they're extremely top heavy. If one of their stars has a bad game, disaster can happen. We've also talked a lot about how good the Jets defense is.
Josh Allen didn't miss a snap, but didn't apparently have some elbow issues. Whatever the reason, he easily had his worst game of the season - completing 52.9% of his passes, had 6.0 yards per attempt, and threw for 205 scoreless yards. PFF charted him with 4 turnover worthy plays. It wasn't pretty on the Jets side of the ball either, but they did more than enough to keep it close. The Jets then took the lead after a Greg Zuerlein 28 yard field goal with 1:43 to go in the 4th. The Bills next drive lasted just 4 plays where they gained negative 11 yards, which sealed New York's upset win.
Shoutout to Dom who also placed an additional moneyline wager on the Jets. That was a nice payday for him.
Final score: NY Jets 20, Buffalo 17
Indianapolis @ New England (-5.5)
Line closed: NE -5, line moved away from the model (but nothing major).
This was a dominant performance by the Patriots defense. The Colts managed just 121 total yards on 60 plays (2 yards/play). New England's offense continued to struggle, but thanks to a blocked punt that gave them the ball on their own 6, a pick 6, and a handful of field goals, they were able to comfortably win.
Final score: New England 26, Indianapolis 3
Carolina @ Cincinnati (-7.5)
Line closed: CIN -7.0, line moved away from the model (that's a big move away from us).
Holy blow out, batman. Cincy took a 35-0 lead at the half and never looked back. Joe Mixon had 211 all-purpose yards and 5 touchdowns. Carolina managed 14 garbage time points in the 4th, but this game was never close.
Final score: Cincinnati 42, Carolina 21
Las Vegas @ Jacksonville (+1.5)
Line closed: LV -2.5, line moved away from the model (but nothing major).
Vegas jumped out to a 20-10 lead at the half, but then proceeded to not score a single second half point. That was a bold strategy.
Jacksonville decided to play offense in the second half, scoring touchdowns on their first two drives to take the lead. Vegas's second half drives went as follows: Punt, Punt, Punt, Turnover on downs, fumble.
Derek Carr got rid of the ball in 2.78 seconds on average, but was still under pressure on 56.4% of dropbacks. Travon Walker, Arden Key, Folorunso Fatukasi, and Dawuane Smoot had 4 pressures each. Offensively, Trevor Lawrence had one of his better games as a pro, earning himself an 87.6 PFF grade while completing 80.6% of his passes and gaining 7.6 yards per attempt.
Final score: Jacksonville 27, Las Vegas 20
Seattle (+2.0) @ Arizona
Line closed: ARI -2.5, line moved toward the model (but nothing major).
Seattle's offense took a bit to get going. After a Geno Smith interception to Zaven Collins that he proceeded to take 30 yards to the house, Seattle was down 14-10 with 9:18 to go in the 3rd. It was the type of play that can suck the life out of an offense that had been struggling against a bad defense. But Geno Smith is no bitch. He used the bad play as motivation, proceeding to lead the Seahawks to touchdowns on their next 3 drives, which gave them a comfortable 31-21 lead. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker also deserves a shoutout, who carried the ball 26 times for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. The defense wasn't great, but was able to shut down DeAndre Hopkins, who had just 4 catches for 36 yards.
Final score: Seattle 31, Arizona 21
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Line closed: TB -3.0, line moved toward the model (this one gave us some nice closing line value).
We were up 5-0 on the week, but things weren't looking great in Tampa. We had them as 2.5 point favorites and they were down 13-9 with 5:43 to go in the 4th. The Bucs offense had been stagnant all day, but they happen to have a QB who you may recognize if you've watched football at any point over the last 22 years, or if you're a single female in the Tampa Bay area on tinder*.
Brady proceeded to lead the Bucs the Rams 6. He then threw a great pass to Scotty Miller in the end zone. It should have been an easy touchdown, but Miller dropped it. After two more incomplete passes, the Bucs turned the ball over on downs. Ok, fine. I guess we'll have to be content taking an L this week.
Not so fast. The Rams were conservative with the football, running into brick walls for 3 straight plays. They then punted to the Tampa 40, which gave the Bucs one more opportunity. They had to drive 60 yards in 44 seconds with no timeouts.
Then came a 28 yard completion to Cade Otton. Brady then calmly spiked the ball at the Rams 32. 28 seconds left. Then came a short completion to Leonard Fournette, who gained 4 yards, but managed to get out of bounds. Then came a pass to Scotty Miller for 14 yards, that he actually caught. And then another 7 yard pass to Miller, and he caught that one too! Then Brady attempted a pass to Mike Evans in the end zone, during which Rams corner Derion Kendrick decided to interfere with Evans. You can't do that! DPI in the end zone sets the Bucs up with 1st and goal at the 1, with 16 seconds left. On the next play, Brady completes to Cade Otton for the score. After a successful extra point from Ryan Succup, we get a miracle cover. If you were late and bet the Bucs -3, you pushed. Bet early, bitches.
*I have no idea if Tom Brady is on tinder. Please don't sue me.
Final score: Tampa Bay 16, LA Rams 13
Tennessee (+12.5) @ Kansas City
Line closed: KC -14.0, though this is due to Ryan Tannehill being ruled out
Having Tannehill not play certainly wasn't a desirable result. Malik Willis clearly isn't ready for the NFL, and the Titans know it. Last week, Willis was allowed to throw just 10 passes. This week he threw 16 times. He completed just 5 of those for 80 yards (5.0 average).
Luckily for us, Derrick Henry showed up, carrying the ball 17 times for 115 yards (6.8 average) and 2 scores. On defense, Mario Edwards Jr and Denico Autry had an absurd 8 pressures each, while Teair Tart was a beast in the run game. Tennessee couldn't pull off the upset win, but they kept it close enough where the spread was never in doubt.
Final score: Kansas City 20, Tennessee 17
Sides recap: We went 7 and fucking 0 this week. Clean fucking sweep. This one felt good. We had a few weeks in there where it felt like nothing would go our way. Then we proceeded to cover on all 7 bets. The process works. The results will follow.
Marcus Mariota o179.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): Mariota had just 129 passing yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Drake London o38.5 receiving yards -120 (BetMGM): London finished with 23 receiving yards. LOSS -1.2 units
Mac Jones o210.5 passing yards -125 (PointBet): Mac Jones's sophomore season struggled continue. He had just 147 yards passing. LOSS -1.25 units
Khalil Herbert u45.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): Herbert had 7 carries for 23 yards as David Montgomery appears to have re-taken the lead back field duties. WIN +1 unit
Tyreek Hill o7.5 receptions +114 (DraftKings): Tyreek had an absurd game, gaining 143 yards and a touchdown. He only caught 7 balls, though. LOSS -1 unit
Gabe Davis u3.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): Davis had just 2 catches. WIN +1.2 units
Joe Mixon u67.5 rushing yards +100 (DraftKings): I think this is the second time this year I bet against someone who had a career day. Mixon had 153 yards. LOSS -1 unit.
Amon-Ra St. Brown u74.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): St. Brown finished with 55 yards. WIN +1 unit
Kyler Murray u265.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet): Murray finished with 175 yards. WIN +1 unit
Mike Evans o5.5 receptions +135 (DraftKings): Ugh, Evans had 5 catches. It would have been sweet for him to grab that late touchdown, but he was interfered with. LOSS -1 unit
Props results: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Season total: 28-26-1
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Season total: 46-47, -1.96 units