Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
Cleveland (+7.5) @ Green Bay
Closing line: 7.5
Due to the whole Christmas thing, I didn't get to watch much of this game outside of the ending, which made me very happy. Baker Mayfield, as he often is, was garbage. He had 4 turnover worthy plays, all 4 of which were intercepted, and completed 58.3% of his passes. The Browns also couldn't stop Davante Adams (10 catches, 114 yards, 2 TDs) -- nobody can -- but did stop everyone else not named Davante Adams. They kept the game close and grabbed a touchdown with 4 minutes to go in the 4th to move within 2. That's where things ended, and was more than good enough for us.
Final score: Green Bay 24, Cleveland 22 (won 1 unit)
LA Chargers @ Houston (+10)
Line closed: LAC -12.5, away from the model
No Brandin Cooks, no defensive line, no problem. Davis Mills was somehow spectacular, completing 77.8% of his passes and gaining 9.4 yards per attempt, good for a 76.3 PFF grade. He spread the ball around equally -- not a single receiver gained more than 60 yards -- but still moved the ball methodically down the field. Rex Burkhead -- yes, Rex Burkhead -- gained 149 yards on the ground on 22 attempts (6.8 average) and had 2 scores. The Texans punted once, coming away with points on all but 2 drives. The Chargers simply couldn't keep up with modern day superstars Rex Burkhead and Davis Mills.
Final score: Houston 41, LA Chargers 29 (won 1 unit)
Jacksonville @ NY Jets (Pick Em)
Line closed: Jets -2.5, toward the model
This just isn't a fun game to watch, analyze, or write about. Unfortunately, the top two picks in the draft are both playing horribly. Zach Wilson did bust out a 52 yard touchdown run, and Michael Carter had 118 yards on 16 carries (7.4 average). It was enough for the Jets to take it.
Final score: NY Jets 26, Jacksonville 21 (won 1 unit)
Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
Line closed: Cincy -7.5, toward the model
The line movement needs a bit of an explanation. After hearing that Lamar Jackson was dealing with a bone bruise in his ankle, it seemed clear to me that he wasn't going to play. As such, I adjusted the Ravens power ranking and DVOA, and the model spit out Cincy -3 as having value. As the week progressed, it became clear Jackson wasn't going to play, and the line moved to 4.5. Then we learned that backup QB Tyler Huntley was being moved to the COVID-19 list, and the line moved again to 7.5. The Ravens were left with Josh Johnson at QB, who they signed off the Jets practice squad on December 15th. This was a clear example of why you need to get your bets in early. The public was wrong on Lamar Jackson's chances of playing, but they were going to figure it out eventually. Yes, we got lucky with Huntley getting the 'vid, but the process was the correct call.
Joe Burrow, once again, carved up the Ravens defense. He completed 37/46 passes (80.4%) for 525 yards (11.4 average), 4 TDs, and 0 picks. I wrote in the preview blog that the Ravens need to temper their blitz happy scheme -- they blitzed Burrow on 28% of dropbacks, where he went 11/13 for 142 yards and a touchdown. Tee Higgins ended up with 12 catches for 192 yards and 2 TDs. Ja'Mar Chase had 125 yards on 7 catches. Joe Mixon had 70 yards receiving, 65 yards on the ground, and 2 touchdowns. You don't need me to tell you that the Josh Johnson led Ravens couldn't keep up.
Final score: Cincinnati 41, Baltimore 21 (won 1 unit)
Prop bets: (rotate your phone on mobile)
- Kyle Juszczyk punched the betting markets in the face with 45 yards. Suck it.
- Deebo Samuel just barely hit his over. Just kidding, he had 159 receiving yards.
- The Antonio Brown prop seemed too easy with Evans and Godwin out.
- I may have been just a tiny bit wrong betting on guys playing for the Chargers and Football Team. Or very, very wrong.
- Ian Book threw a pick six on his second pass, oops.
- But he only ran for 6 yards. Thanks Ian!
Units are calculated as follows: each prop has a 1 unit wager on it. If the wager has dog odds (i.e., the line column has a positive number), then we're risking 1 unit to win the line divided by 100. If the wager is a favorite (i.e., the line column has a negative number), we're risking the line divided by 100 to win 1 unit. Whatever a "unit," is for you, multiply that by 3.22, and that's how much you would have won tailing these bets. If you're interested in getting into the prop game, always check this site so you can easily compare lines across multiple books to get the best price.
Week 16: The Perfect Week (4-0, won 4 units)
Season total: 25-20, +5 units
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, lost 3.74 units)
Week 16: The Perfect Week (7-5, won 3.22 units)
Season total: 42-38, +8.37 units