Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
New Orleans (-1.5) @ Houston
Line closed: NO -2.5, line moved toward the model
Things went poorly for the Saints. They had two missed field goals and fumbled after a CJ Stroud interception, which Houston recovered. They had the better DVOA this game (1.5% to -9.4%), but it's tough to win close games when you have those bounces go against you.
Final score: Houston 20, New Orleans 13
Philadelphia @ NY Jets (+7.0)
Line closed: PHI -6.5, line moved toward the model
With the Jets missing both starting corners (DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner) to concussions, we thought we might be in trouble. Predictably, the Jets had no answer for AJ Brown, who caught 7 passes for 131 yards. However, the Jets were able to shutdown the non-AJ Browns to keep the game close. CB Craig James, a 2018 UDFA who played 1 single snap this season, stepped in to play 41 snaps. He was targeted twice and didn't allow a single completion, which included a pass break up. It also helped that Jalen Hurts threw 3 interceptions, including 1 at the Philly 46 with 1:50 to go in the game. That interception was returned by Tony Adams 45 yards to the Philly 8.
That left us with the following scenario: the Eagles are up 2. There's just 1:46 left in the game, and the Jets are on their own 8. New York could have taken the clock down as low as possible and kick a field goal, so the Eagles let the Jets score a touchdown. RB Breece Hall obliged on the next play, the Jets were suddenly up 7. The Eagles couldn't do anything on their next drive, and the game ended.
Final score: NY Jets 20, Philly 14
Dallas @ LA Chargers (+2.0)
Line closed: DAL -1.5, line moved toward the model
There isn't much to say about this one other than Justin Herbert simply got outplayed by Dak Prescott. Herbert completed just 59.5% of his passes while gaining 6.1 yards per attempt. He had a 62.5 PFF grade, which reflects at least two wide open receivers that he missed. Prescott completed 70% of his passes while gaining 9.1 yards per attempt, good for a 90.0 PFF grade.
Even still, the game remained close. It was tied at 17 with 7:11 to go in the 4th, but then the Cowboys orchestrated a 14 play, 54 yard drive that resulted in a field goal. More importantly, however, they ate 4:52 of game time. The Chargers got the ball back with 2:19 to go, but they had to burn all their timeouts to slow down the Cowboys. 4 plays later, Herbert threw an interception, ending the game.
Final score: Dallas 20, LA Chargers 17
Spreads recap: We went 1-2. It hurt a bit that we faded two model picks due to QB injuries - Cleveland and the Giants - and both teams covered. I still feel it was the correct strategy as both lines moved away from the model. With the 3 games we did bet, all lines moved in our direction. Onto week 7.
Ryan Tannehill o205.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Tannehill was injured during the game, but this bet was probably dead anyway. He threw for 76 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Trevor Lawrence u256.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Lawrence threw for 181 yards. WIN +0.87 units
Derek Carr o1.5 passing TDs +165 (Bet365): Carr had 1 touchdown LOSS -1 unit
Jerome Ford o35.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Ford had 84 yards rushing. WIN +0.88 units
Brandon Aiyuk o47.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): McCaffrey and Samuel were injured while the 49ers were trailing. We were never losing this bet. Aiyuk finished with 76 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Ja'Marr Chase o86.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Chase had 80 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Josh Downs u3.5 receptions +140 (DraftKings): Downs had 5 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Mac Jones o204.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Mac Jones threw for 200 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Matt Stafford u280.5 passing yards (Bet365): Stafford threw for 226 yards. WIN +0.91 units
AJ Brown o5.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings): AJ Brown caught 7 balls. WIN +1.2 units
Props results: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Total: 29-27, +1.91 units