Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
Tampa Bay @ NY Jets (+13.5)
Spread closed: TB -14, line moved away from the model
Our model is so sharp it's capable of accounting for a star wide receiver literally stripping naked and quitting mid game.
The Jets hung tough with the Bucs, even winning outright for most of the game, until they weren't. Braxton Berrios ended with 8 catches for 65 yards and a TD. He also added a 12 yard TD on the ground. Zach Wilson wasn't spectacular, but he played a mistake-free game, completing 19/33 passes (57.6%) for 234 yards (7.1 YPA) and a touchdown. The game ended thanks to a perfectly executed 2 minute drill by Tom Brady and the Bucs, where they drove the ball 93 yards on 9 plays in 1:57. That helps the Jets preserve a better draft pick, embarrassing loss for the Bucs, and an easy cover for us. A rare win-win-win.
Final score: Tampa Bay 28, NY Jets 24 (won 1 unit)
LA Rams (-3.5) @ Baltimore
Spread closed: LAR -7, line moved toward the model.
For a second week in a row, we gained value by the market not properly accounting for Lamar Jackson's chance of playing. As mentioned previously, Jackson isn't dealing with a normal ankle sprain that he could potentially play through. He has a bone bruise, which demands rest to heal. Once Jackson was ruled out, the line shifted from 3.5 to 7.
Not that it mattered for the result. Against a Ravens secondary that is trotting out actual dust balls, Matt Stafford had 3 turnover worthy plays, including 2 INTs and a fumble. The Rams had issues moving the ball all game (except for Cooper Kupp, obviously, who went 6/95/1), and needed a comeback win to take it. For us, it simply wasn't enough.
Final score: LA Rams 20, Baltimore 19 (lost 1 unit)
Kansas City @ Cincinnati (+5.0)
Closing line: KC -3,5 line moved toward the model.
The best game of the week happened to be one we bet on. Joe Burrow entered the MVP conversation by going 39/45 (76.9%) for 446 yards (11.4 YPA) with 4 TDs and 0 picks. Ja'Marr Chase caught a ridiculous 11 balls for 266 yards and 3 TDs. The Chiefs offense was just as dominant, the best performance came from Darrel Williams, who had 88 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Cincy took the lead early in the 3rd quarter, and in the 4th, both teams took long drives that resulted in field goals, ending things in Cincy's favor.
Final score: Cincinnati 43, Kansas City 31 (won 1 unit)
Houston (+12.5) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -14, line moved away from the model
I refuse to waste anyone's time on this shit game. Rookie Trey Lance wasn't particularly impressive, but the Texans offense fell completely flat. The 49ers defense pressured Davis Mills 20 times, including a ridiculous 7 pressures from Arden Key on just 19 pass rushing snaps. Unfortunately, we couldn't get the garbage time points from the Texans that were needed to back door cover.
Final score: San Francisco 23, Houston 7 (lost 1 unit)
Detroit @ Seattle (-7.0)
Line closed: SEA -9, line moved toward the model
The Seahawks dropped a 51 burger. I thought it was interesting that Russ Wilson's lone strong performance since his finger injury was against a horrid Texans defense. On Sunday, he had the Lions, who have a defense that ranks 29th in DVOA. Wilson went 20/29 (69%) for 236 yards (8.1 average), good for 4 TDs and 0 picks. DK Metcalf caught 3 of those touchdowns and gained 63 yards through the air. It didn't matter that Jared Goff (knee) couldn't play; the Lions were never keeping up.
Final score: Seattle 51, Detroit 29 (won 1 unit)
Prop bets: (rotate your phone on mobile)
- How about our boy Zach Wilson not throwing a pick?
- The Jets came through for us multiple times this week. Since they were winning most of the game, Tom Brady attempted 50 passes. He ended with 410 yards.
- Boston Scott finished with 47 yards, barely sneaking under his 47.5 line. Then the Gambling Gods punnished us, with Jarvis Landry gaining 43.5 receiving yards, narrowly missing his 44.5 line.
- Patriots starting RB Damien Harris injured his hamstring and they dropped 50 on the Jags. Rhamondre Stevenson ended with 107 yards, ouch.
- Fucking Matt Stafford.
- Dalvin Cook just flat out no-showed on Sunday Night.
- I forgive you, Kyle Juszcyck.
Units are calculated as follows: each prop has a 1 unit wager on it. If the wager has dog odds (i.e., the line column has a positive number), then we're risking 1 unit to win the line divided by 100. If the wager is a favorite (i.e., the line column has a negative number), we're risking the line divided by 100 to win 1 unit. Whatever a "unit," is for you, multiply that by 2.47, and that's how much you would have won tailing these bets. If you're interested in getting into the prop game, always check this site so you can easily compare lines across multiple books to get the best price.
Week 17: When You Bet the Jets, You Win (Results May Vary) (3-2, won 1 unit)
Season total: 28-22, +6 units
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, lost 3.74 units)
Week 17: When You Bet the Jets, You Win (Results May Vary) (7-5, won 2.47 units)
Season total: 49-43, +10.84 units