Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Minnesota @ Green Bay (+1.0)
Line closed: MIN -1.0, line remained the same
The Packers couldn't get anything going offensively. Jordan Love completed just 58.5% of his passes, gaining 5.6 yards per attempt on 49 dropbacks. His receivers consistently failed him, they struggled to get open against a bad Vikings secondary and dropped 4 passes. Meanwhile, the defense had no answer for the Vikings passing offense. Prior to tearing his achilles, Kirk Cousins was 23/31 (74.2%) for 274 yards (8.8 average), good for a 90.1 PFF grade. KJ Osborn (99 yards), KJ Osborn (88 yards), and Jordan Addison (82 yards) were all productive.
Final score: Minnesota 24, Green Bay 10
Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (+2.5)
Line closed: JAX -2.5, line remained the same
The Steelers offense struggled. Kenny Pickett was averaging just 4.6 yards per attempt through the air before leaving with an injury to his ribs. Mitch Tribusky took over, and things got even worse. Tribusky completed 55.6% of his passes, gaining 5.1 yards per attempt, while throwing 2 interceptions (both of which was his fault). He had a PFF game grade of 45.3. You can't win with that level of quarterback play, especially when Trevor Lawrence is on the other side.
Final score: Jacksonville 20, Pittsburgh 10
Baltimore (8.5) @ Arizona
Line closed: BAL -9.5, line moved toward the model
This was easily the most tilting loss of the year. We were 0-2 going into the 4 o'clock slate - a Ravens cover would be the only thing preventing us from losing all 3 of our bets. With 9:27 to go in the 4th quarter, Justin Tucker hit a 48 yard field goal, giving the Ravens a 24-7 lead. Arizona answered back with a touchdown to cut the deficit to 9, which naturally still puts us in cover territory. Things were looking great after Baltimore scored yet another touchdown, giving them a 31-15 lead with just 2:51 to go. A defensive stop would end the game.
It didn't happen. Arizona drove 10 plays for 75 yards, which resulted in a Marquise Brown touchdown. The Cardinals then went for 2, which they failed to convert, giving us a 10 point lead with just 1:14 to go. Finally, we were going to win a game.
Not so fast. Arizona then recovers the onside kick. They couldn't get much going offensively, but the onside kick recovery gave them excellent field position. It was 2nd and 15 from the Baltimore 29 with 26 seconds left to go, and Arizona elects to kick a field goal to bring it within 7. Matt Prater nails it, and suddenly we're no longer covering.
We're usually betting large dogs, and we've been on the fortunate side of this before, so bitching about the decision to kick a field goal doesn't feel right. But I'm going to anyway - Arizona needs a touchdown and a field goal to win. You're at the Ravens 29, you need to do everything you can to get that touchdown. It's not going to suddenly get easier to score a touchdown on the next drive.
Final score: Baltimore 31, Arizona 24
Result: Tilting LOSS
ATS recap: We went 0-3, but at least none of the lines moved against us, with the Baltimore line moving toward the model.
Kirk Cousins u258.3 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): Cousins tore his Achilles in this game. He still went over, throwing for 274 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Dak Prescott u15.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Prescott ran for 19 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Rhamondre Stevenson o37.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Stevenson had 39 yards rushing. WIN +0.88 units
Najee Harris o41.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Harris had 13 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Dalton Schultz u38.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Schultz had 5 yards. WIN +0.91 units
DeVonta Smith o4.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings): Smith had 7 catches. WIN +1.2 units
Matt Stafford u0.5 interceptions +140 (Bet365): Stafford threw 1 pick. LOSS -1 unit
PJ Walker u200.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet): Walker had 248 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Pierre Strong o22.5 rushing yards -110 (Caesars): Strong had 41 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Brandon Ayiuk o65.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings): Ayiuk had 109 receiving yards. WIN +0.87 units
Final tally: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Total: 41-36, +5.65 units