Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Detroit (-3.0) @ Chicago
Line closed: DET -3.0, line stayed the same
The Lions passing attack was against a Bears defense that ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA. Despite this, Jared Goff averaged 4.6 yards per attempt, earning him a 44.8 game grade from PFF. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught just 3 balls for 21 yards, despite being targeted 8 times (2 were drops). There were some positives - Aidan Hutchinson had 6 pressures, and both Lions running backs were over 6.0 yards per attempt - but it was an all around failure by Detroit against an inferior Bears team.
Final score: Chicago 28, Detroit 13
Result: LOSS
Indianapolis @ Cincinnati (+1.0)
Line closed: CIN -3.0, line moved toward the model (big time)
Outside of winning, there isn't a better feeling than to hold a ticket for a dog to see them close as a 3-point favorite.
Jake Browning continues to impress. He completed 75.0% of his passes, averaged 11.5 yards per attempt, and earned a 83.3 grade from PFF. He wasn't sacked once, and hit 9 different receivers - not a single one catching more than 3 calls. On defense, Trey Hendrickson had 5 pressures and 2 sacks. The game was tied at 14 at the half, but then Cincy pulled away easily in the 2nd.
Final score: Cincy 34, Indy 14
Result: WIN
Seattle (+10.5) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -14.5, line moved away from the model
We had some brutal luck with this one. Geno Smith injured his groin (penis) in practice on Thursday, and as a result wasn't able to play Sunday. Since we're making our bets on Tuesday's, we just have to swallow the L. The line moved all the way to 14.5 in Smith's absence, as the Seahawks had to turn to Drew Lock, an disaster disguised as a football player. Lock "only" threw 2 interceptions, but he had 4 turnover worthy plays. He did otherwise put up decent numbers, including a 71% completion rate and 8.7 yards per attempt. In addition to turnovers, the Seahawks were unable to contain Christian McCaffrey (16 carries for 145 yards), Deebo Samuel (7 catches for 149 yards), Brandon Aiyuk (6 catches for 126 yards), or Nick Bosa (8 pressures). In the end, San Francisco was able to run away with it.
Final score: San Francisco 28, Seattle 16
Result: LOSS
Tennessee (+13.5) @ Miami
Line closed: MIA -13.5, line stayed the same
Wild. That's all I have to say.
We caught some injury luck in this one, with Tyreek Hill suffering an ankle injury mid-game. Hill sort of/kind of returned, but clearly wasn't himself, finishing with 4 catches for 61 yards. He also wasn't on the field for several key plays toward the end of the game.
We were in good position throughout the night. The Titans were within 3 throughout the entire game, but with 6:07 to go in the 4th, chaos happened. At this point, the game was tied 13 all.
It started with a Jake Bailey punt that Titans return man Eric Garror muffed at his own 7 yard line, ultimately turning the ball over to Miami. 2 plays later, Raheem Mostert scored a touchdown. On the very first play of the next drive, Will Levis fumbled at the Titans 18. 3 plays later, yet again, Raheem Mostert scored a touchdown. 1 minute and 33 seconds had elapsed on the game clock, and we went from a tie game to us not even covering a motherfucking 13.5 point spread. But the game wasn't over.
On the next drive, Will Levis orchestrated a surgical drive, ultimately finding DeAndre Hopkins in the end zone. Tennessee, now down 8, elected to go for 2, and were ultimately successful. The drive took just 1:54 off the clock, and Tennessee was now within 6. Miami's next drive was a 3 and out, forcing a Jake Bailey punt. Levis again drove down the field, ultimately resulting in a Derrick Henry touchdown to give Tennessee a 1 point game. Miami was unable to do anything on their last drive, ending the game and giving the Titans an upset win.
The game was tied at 13 with 6:07 left in the game and finished 28-27. Pour one out for the under bettors.
Final score: Tennessee 28, Miami 27
Result: WIN
ATS recap: We had a big line movement in our favor, one that moved against us due to injury, and 2 lines that stayed the same. We finished 2-2.
Props recap:
Matt Stafford o195.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Stafford had 294 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Matt Stafford o18.5 completions -115 (Bet365): Stafford completed 23 passes. WIN +0.91 units
Bryce Young o178.5 passing yards -101 (Caesars): Young had 137 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Keaton Mitchell u45.5 rushing yards -105 (PointBet): MItchell had 54 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Khalil Herbert o21.5 rushing yards +105 (Bet365): Herbert had 8 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Ja'Marr Chase o67.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings): Chase had 29 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Chris Godwin u49.5 receiving yards -104 (Caesars): Godwin had 53 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Amon-Ra St. Brown o6.5 receptions -105 (DraftKings): ARSB caught 3 balls. LOSS -1 unit
Dak Prescott u301.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Prescott threw for 271 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Tony Pollard o58.5 rushing yards -106 (Caesars): Pollard had 59 yards. Close one. WIN +0.94 units
Tommy DeVito o169.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Tommy Cutlets had 158 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Tua Tagovailoa u290.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet): Tua had 240 yards. WIN +0.83 units
Props tally: 5-7, -2.54 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
Week 13 Recap: Jake Browning Fucks
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 13: 2-3
Week 13: 2-2
Week 14: 2-2
Total: 26-27
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Week 13: 5-6 -1.21 units
Week 14: 5-7, -2.54 units
Total: 74-73, -0.04 units