Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
Pittsburgh (+5.5) @ Baltimore
Closing line: Baltimore -3, line moved toward the model
For the third week in a row, the market overestimated the chances of Lamar Jackson playing. For the third week in a row, we told you Lamar wasn't playing and to grab whoever was playing the Ravens early. For the third week in a row, the line moved toward the model wasn't it was announced Jackson wasn't playing.
This game was evenly matched -- 7 points was the biggest deficit either team faced. At the end of regulation, the game was tied. That put us in a position where we could only lose if Baltimore scored a touchdown. The Ravens did win the toss, but were only able to gain 23 yards and were forced to punt. Pittsburgh then gained 65 yards on their next drive to kick a field goal and win it.
Final score: Pittsburgh 16, Baltimore 13 (won 1 unit)
Chicago @ Minnesota (-2.5)
Line closed: MIN -3.5, line moved toward the model
Things weren't looking too great for the FAT boys, with the Bears grabbing a 14-3 lead at the half. Then Minnesota scored a touchdown on the first drive in the 3rd quarter. They tied the game to end the 3rd, then they outscore the Bears 21-0 in the 4th quarter for a stress free cover. Justin Jefferson ended with 5 catches for 107 yards and 1 touchdown. Kenny Willekes had 9 pressures and 2 sacks. On the other side, Darnell Mooney caught 12 balls for 126 yards.
Final score: Minnesota 31, Chicago 17 (won 1 unit)
Washington @ NY Giants (+7.0)
Yup, Jake Fromm is that bad.
Final score: Washington 22, NY Giants 7 (lost 1 unit)
Seattle (+6.5) @ Arizona
This was a relatively sweat-free win, with Seattle winning or tied virtually the entire way (save for Arizona jumping to an early 7-0 lead). Russ Wilson went 15/26 for 238 yards (9.2 average) and 3 TDs. Tyler Lockett had 5 catches for 98 yards and 2 TDs. The Seahawks defense was predictably unable to stop Arizona, but the offense did more than enough to win.
Final score: Seattle 38, Arizona 30
Prop bets (for mobile users, rotate your phone):
- What a brutal week for prop bets. Things just didn't even come close to going our way.
- In hindsight, it was probably mistake fading Gronkowski, who was left in the game until he hit his contract incentive (he needed 7 catches). I felt the projections were accounting for this, but the uncertainty should have made it a fade.
- George Kittle ended up with 5 catches.
- Ryan Tannehill ended with 4 TDs, our one sweat-free win.
- Jared Cook (7 catches) and Tyler Higbee (6 catches) weren't even close.
- Fucking Jake Fromm.
Units are calculated as follows: each prop has a 1 unit wager on it. If the wager has dog odds (i.e., the line column has a positive number), then we're risking 1 unit to win the line divided by 100. If the wager is a favorite (i.e., the line column has a negative number), we're risking the line divided by 100 to win 1 unit. Whatever a "unit," is for you, multiply that by 5.8, and that's how much you would have lost tailing these bets. If you're interested in getting into the prop game, always check this site so you can easily compare lines across multiple books to get the best price.
Week 18: Free Money Fading Baltimore, Again (3-1, won 2 units)
Season total: 31-22, +8 units
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, lost 3.74 units)
Week 18: Free Money Fading Baltimore, Again (2-8, lost 5.8 units)
Season total: 51-51, +5.05 units