Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
Las Vegas @ LA Rams (+6.0)
Line closed: Vegas -6.0, line remained the same
Yes, we bet on a team without knowing who the starting QB was going to be.
The QB situation was odd, to say the least. John Wolford got the start, where he executed 3 hand offs that resulted in zero fumbles. It led to a 3 and out, and Wolford was subsequently benched in favor of Baker Mayfield -- aged 2 days in terms of time spent on the Rams roster -- for the remainder of the game. Evidently Wolford's hand offs weren't up to Sean McVay's standards, and it was time to bring in the new guy.
The Rams offense was predictably inept. Maxx Crosby (6 pressures) and Chandler Jones (4) feasted on the weak offensive line as the Raiders held a 16-3 lead with 12:20 to go in the 4th. But then Baker Mayfield remembered how to football, engineering a 17 play, 75 yard drive that resulted in a Cam Akers touchdown. The downside to the drive was it took 9:01 off the clock, leaving the Rams down 6 with 3:19 to go. Given that we had the Rams +6.0, I thought we had decent push-odds and I was happy.
The story wasn't over. The Raiders went 3 and out on the ensuing drive, giving the Rams the ball at their own 2 with 1:45 to go. The Rams were able to put together a few chunk plays, first gaining 8 yards on a completion to Tutu Atwell and then another 12 on a DPI. Mayfield was sacked on the next play, which should have resulted in a 9 yard loss, but an unbelievably dumb unsportsmanlike penalty was taken by Raiders DT Jerry Tillery instead, which gave the Raiders a free 15 yards and a 1st down. Mayfield then had 3 straight completions for 32 yards, 9 yards, and 8 yards which took the Rams down to the 23. With 10 seconds left, Mayfield then completed a 23 yard pass to Van Jefferson in the end zone for a touchdown, and after a successful extra point the Rams were up 1.
Shoutout to the Rams defense that was able to hold Josh Jacobs (3.7 YPC) and Davante Adams (3 catches for 71 yards) in check. Rams receiver Ben Skowronek stepped up as well, catching 7 balls for 89 yards.
Final score: LA Rams 17, Las Vegas 16
Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-3.5)
Line closed: Titans -3.5, line remained the same
With three different 1 o'clock wagers going on, I thought this was going to be an easy sweat free win that we could ignore. Derrick Henry had almost 100 yards in the first damn quarter as Tennessee jumped out to an early 14-7 lead. But then the Titans offense imploded as they scored 8 points total from the 2nd quarter on. Trevor Lawrence also appears to have figured out the whole being an NFL QB thing -- he finished going 39/42 (71.4%), good for 368 yards (8.8) average, 8 TDs, 0 picks, and a PFF grade of 92.6. Even Engram was the star on the receiving end, catching 11 balls for 162 yards and 2 TDs. Despite the promising start, it was the Jags who rolled.
Final score: Jacksonville 36, Tennessee 22
NY Jets (+9.5) @ Buffalo
Line closed: BUF -10, line moved away from the model
This one went about as you would expect -- both offenses struggled, with the Bills leading just 7-0 at the half. The Bills offense got rolling in the 2nd half, but the Jets were able to keep within cover-range via a touchdown, safety, and a field goal. The defense did the rest.
Final score: Buffalo 20, NY Jets 12
Baltimore (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh
Line closed: Pittsburgh -1.5, line moved toward the model
Kenny Pickett was injured early, which gave way to Mitch Tribusky at QB for the Steelers. Tribusky was decent enough throwing the ball - he completed 73.3% of his passes and gained 9.2 yards per attempt -- but he threw 3 interceptions, each of which was his fault. The Ravens Lamar Jackson-less relied heaving on the ground game, attempting 42 carries as a team and gaining 215 yards (5.1 average). They jumped out to a 13-7 lead at the half and were able to hold on.
Steelers kicker Chris Boswell missed a 40 yard field goal. The resulting points would have been enough to win the game, but we would have covered either way.
Final score: Baltimore 16, Pittsburgh 14
Carolina @ Seattle (-3.5)
Line closed: Seattle -3.5, line remained the same
Carolina scored a field goal on their opening drive. Geno Smith threw an interception on the Seahawks first play of the game, giving Carolina the ball at the Seattle 13. They scored a touchdown on the next play, quickly giving Carolina an early 10-0 lead. After an early second quarter touchdown for Carolina, they were up 17-0, and our bet felt pretty dead from there (probably because it was).
Final score: Carolina 30, Seattle 24
Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ San Francisco
Line closed: San Fran -3.5, line remained the same
Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of all time, lost to rookie Mr. Irrelevant. Badly. Vegas disrespected him by making him a 3.5 point dog against Brock god damn Purdy, and he did absolutely nothing about it. Credit to Purdy, who completed 76.2% of his passes and gained 8.8 yards per attempt. PFF credited Brady with 3 turnover worthy plays as the 49ers won big.
Final score: San Francisco 35, Tampa Bay 7
Miami (-3.0) @ LA Chargers
Line closed: Miami -3.0, line remained the same
Final score: LA Chargers 23, Miami 17
New England (-1.5) @ Arizona
Line closed: New England -2.0, line moved toward the model
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Kyler Murray tore his ACL early. The Cardinals were hanging tough, but had a fumble-6 and an interception on two consecutive drives. The Patriots took the ball post interception and drove 63 yards for a touchdown, which effectively put the game away.
Final score: New England 27, Arizona 13
Sides recap: We finished 4-4. Not good, not great. Interestingly enough, there wasn't a ton of movement in the lines.
Davante Adams o7.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): Adams finished with 3 catches for 71 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Jared Goff u274.5 passing yards -110 (BetMGM: Goff had 330 passing yards. WIN +1 unit
Davis Mills o185.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet): Mills was weirdly benched for the second series alone. I didn't catch if it was an injury, or something else. Either way, the Texans finished with 213 passing yards, but Mills only had 175 of them. LOSS -1.2 units
Zeke Elliot u67.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Elliot had 62 yards rushing. WIN +1 unit
Zonovan Knight u40.5 rushing yards -110 (PointBet): Knight finished with 71 rushing yards. LOSS -1.1 units
Isaiah McKenzie u30.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): McKenzie had 21 receiving yards. WIN +1 unit
Garrett Wilson o5.5 receptions +124 (FanDuel): Wilson had 6 catches. WIN +1.24 units
Ja'Marr Chase o6.5 receptions +110 (BetMGM): Chase had 10 catches. We were aided with injuries to both Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. WIN +1.1 units
Diontae Johnson u4.5 receptions +126 (Caesars): Johnson had 6 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Tom Brady o250.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel): An embarrassing loss for Brady, but game script was on our side. He finished with 253 yards. WIN +1 unit
Julio Jones o18.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): Julio had 38 receiving yards. WIN +1 unit
D'Onta Foreman u63.5 rushing yards -108 (Caesars): Foreman finished with 73 rushing yards. LOSS -1.08 units
Jerry Jeudy u60.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Jeudy had 73 receiving yards. LOSS -1.1 units
Tua Tagovailoa u290.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): What an ugly game. Tua finished with 145 passing yards. WIN +1 unit
Final result: 8-6, +1.86 units
Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model
Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover
Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants
Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants
Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week
Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week
Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun
Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points
Week 9: Clean Sweep
Week 10: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500
Week 11: Ouch Town, Population Us
Week 12: Look At That, We Won
Week 13: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If You Cover
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Week 12: 4-3
Week 13: 4-3
Week 14: 4-4
Season total: 43-46-1
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units
Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units
Week 14: 8-6, +1.86 units
Season total: 79-73, +1.3 units