Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
New Orleans (+4.0) @ LA Rams
Line closed: LAR -4.0, line stayed the same
The Saints were severely outplayed throughout the game, down as much as 30-7 with 12:44 to go in the 4th. They had no answer for Kyren Williams (104 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown) or Puka Nauca (9 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown). The line couldn't stop Ernest Jones (5 pressures/1 sack), Kobie Turner (4 pressures/1 sack), or Aaron Donald (4 pressures) from getting to the quarterback. The Saints were able to mount a comeback to make the final score look closer than it ultimately was, but we were realistically never covering this game.
Result: LOSS
Cleveland @ Houston (+2.5)
Line closed: CLE -3.0, line moved away from the model
Amari Cooper had 11 catches for two hundred and fucking sixty five yards and 2 touchdowns. I'm sorry if you were against him in fantasy. I have nothing further.
Final score: Cleveland 36, Houston 22
Result: LOSS
Seattle (-2.5) @ Tennessee
Line closed: SEA -3.0, line moved toward the model
A true nail biter/sweat-fest. Derrick Henry both ran for a score and threw for one, involving himself in both of the Titans touchdowns. The Seahawks weren't able to do much offensively (Smith had 6.3 yards via the air and the run game averaged 2.9 YPA), but DK Metcalf and Colby Parkinson were both able to haul in touchdown passes. The game was decided by a 14 play, 75 yard touchdown drive that put the Seahawks ahead 3 with 57 seconds left in the game. The Titans were unable to do much in the final minutes of the game, and that's where things ended.
Final score: Seattle 20, Tennessee 17
Result: WIN
Detroit @ Minnesota (+3.5)
Line closed: DET -2.5, line moved toward the model
The Vikings had no answer for Amon-Ra St. Brown (12 catches/106 yards/1 touchdown) or the Lions run game (30 carries/143 yards/3 touchdowns). Nick Mullens had an impressive 11.4 yards through the air, but that also came with 4 picks. They simply needed to take better care of the ball to keep up with the Lions high-powered offense.
Final score: Detroit 30, Minnesota 24
Las Vegas (+10.0) @ Kansas City
Line closed: KC -11.0, line moved away from the model
Well shit, we should have taken the moneyline. The Raiders defense - sneakily ranked 8th in defensive DVOA this season - had two touchdowns, one via a Patrick Mahomes interception and the other via a botched hand off. The key to the Raiders offense was an insanely efficient rushing attack, led by Zamir White, who had 22 carries for 145 yards (6.6 average). Aidan O'Connell averaged a laughably poor 3.0 yards per attempt, but at least he kept the ball out of harms way.
Final score: Las Vegas 20, Kansas City 14
Result: WIN
Baltimore (+5.5) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -6.5, line moved away from the model
We should have taken the moneyline, part 2. Brock Purdy threw 4 interceptions and Lamar Jackson threw none. That was essentially the story.
Only 2 of Purdy's 4 interceptions were deemed "turnover worthy" by PFF, and he still gained 8.0 yards threw the air. Meanwhile, Chirstian McCaffrey gained an absurd 7.4 yards on the ground with both George Kittle (126) and Brandon Aiyuk (113) eclipsing the 100 yard mark. The 49ers offense was just as efficient as we've come to expect, but those turnovers are killers.
Final score: Baltimore 33, San Francisco 19
Result: WIN
Sides recap: 3-3, an even week with some disappointing closing line value.
Props recap:
Josh Allen o22.5 completions +105 (PointBet): Allen had 15 completions. LOSS -1 unit
Case Keenum u207.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Keenum was benched. He threw for 62 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Chuba Hubbard u72.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Hubbard had 43 yards on the ground. WIN +0.91 units
Romeo Doubs u45.5 rushing yards -115 (PointBet): Doubs had 79 receiving yards. LOSS -1 unit
Dontayvion Wicks u4.5 receptions +102 (FanDuel): Wicks caught 2 balls. WIN +1.02 units
Dak Prescott u277.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Prescott had 253 yards. WIN +0.91 units
D'Onta Foreman u39.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Foreman was a surprise healthy scratch, which I suppose makes me feel better about taking his under, but the bet simply cancels.
De'Von Achane u47.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Achane had 24 yards rushing. WIN +0.91 units
Bailey Zappe o183.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Zappe had 256 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Tommy DeVito o180.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet): I was on the right and wrong side of benching's this week. DeVito finished with 55 yards before being replaced by Tyrod Taylor. LOSS -1 unit
Final tally: 5-4, +0.66 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
Week 13 Recap: Jake Browning Fucks
Week 14 Recap: Monday Madness Decides Our Fate
Week 15 Recap: The Cowboys Sucked
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 13: 2-3
Week 13: 2-2
Week 14: 2-2
Week 15: 1-2
Week 16: 3-3
Total: 30-32
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Week 13: 5-6 -1.21 units
Week 14: 5-7, -2.54 units
Week 15: 3-10, -7.10 units
Week 16: 5-4, +0.66 units
Total: 82-87, -6.48 units