Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
Indianapolis @ Minnesota (-4.5)
Line closed: MIN -3.5, line moved away from the model
I don't think we need to dive into this one. Minnesota completed the largest comeback in NFL history by overcoming a 33-0 deficit, which has naturally been covered by anyone with a keyboard and internet access.
As for our bet, we needed Minnesota to cover a 37.5 point deficit. Is that too much to ask? Apparently.
If I can complain anyway, even though I have no right to, Minnesota did get hosed by two different fumbles being blown dead early. At the very least, the second one would have gone for a touchdown.
Final score: Minnesota 39, Indianapolis 36
Miami (+7.5) @ Buffalo
Line closed: BUF -7.0, line moved toward the model (and off a big hook).
The snow game that never was -- the total closed at 44 due to an apparent influx of snow that was coming in, but most of the snow came down prior to kickoff, which gave the crew enough time to get the field cleared. There was still plenty of snow in the stands, with the Bills mafia cleverly figured out how to form into small balls, allowing them to launch snow onto the field until the refs rudely asked them to stop. Some snow did come down in the 4th quarter, but it didn't seem to have a big impact on the game. It's another example of people overreacting to weather predictions.
As for the game itself, the Dolphins were able to keep things close throughout. Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle each had 60+ yard plays, which enabled the ground game to average 7.5 yards per carry and the passing game to gain 7.8 yards per pass. On defense, as predicted, they were able to keep consistent pressure on Josh Allen. Allen was under pressure on 37% of dropbacks, with Jaelan Phillips and Zach Sieler notching 5 pressures each. Also as predicted, it wasn't enough to stop Allen from taking advantage of the Dolphins secondary. Buffalo was able to squeak out a win, but we were able to cover relatively easily.
Final score: Buffalo 32, Miami 29
Detroit @ NY Jets (+1.0)
Line closed: NYJ -2.0, line moved toward the model
There's not much more I love on this planet then betting a dog only to have them close as a favorite.
...but it's better when that bet actually wins.
We were in good shape here, with CJ Uzomah catching a touchdown pass with 4:41 to go in the 4th, putting the Jets up 17-13. However, on the next drive, Brock Wright caught a 51 yard touchdown pass to put the Lions ahead 20-17. There was still 1:49 on the clock, but do you really think Zach Wilson engineered a go ahead touchdown drive to win it? Of course not.
Final score: Detroit 20, NY Jets 17
Philadelphia (-9.0) @ Chicago
Line closed: PHI -8.5, line moved away from the model
The Eagles offense started slow. I thought the advantage that Philadelphia's offensive line had in the trenches would have enabled them to easily move the ball, but it just didn't happen. The Eagles run game finished averaging just 3.4 yards per attempt. At the half, Philly was up just 10-6. They were finally able to get some offense in the 2nd half, but the Bears were keeping pace.
We finally hit cover territory with 4:20 to go in the 4th when Jalen Hurts ran for a touchdown, putting the Eagles up 23-13. However, on the next drive, the Bears were able to put together a 6 play, 60 yard drive that resulted in a touchdown. That put them within 5, and with the Eagles having zero incentive to score more points, it's how things ended.
Final score: Philadelphia 25, Chicago 20
Dallas (-4.5) @ Jacksonville
Line closed: DAL -4.0, line moved away from the model
The Cowboys were rolling, leading 27-10 with 5:21 to go in the 3rd. Then came a Jags touchdown, a Dak interception which gave the Jags excellent field position, which led to another touchdown, giving Jacksonville a 31-27 lead. Then came a solid back and forth 4th quarter, which ended tied up after a Riley Patterson 48 yard field goal to tie the game up. In overtime, Dak Prescott threw an interception to Rayshawn Jenkins, which he returned for a touchdown. Full credit to Trevor Lawrence for leading the comeback.
Final score: Jacksonville 40, Dallas 34 (OT)
Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ Carolina
Line closed: Carolina -3.0, line moved away from the model
This game was rather boring. Mitch Tribusky was solid, completing 77.3% of his passes and gaining 8.1 yards per attempt. Diontae Johnson picked apart the Panthers poor secondary, catching 10 balls for 98 yards. On the defensive side, Cam Heyward had 6 pressures and 2 sacks.
Final score: Pittsburgh 24, Carolina 16
Arizona @ Denver (-2.5)
Line closed: DEN -2.0, line moved away from the model
Brett Rypien vs a combination of Colt McCoy (who went down with a concussion) and Trace McSorley. Fun stuff.
Rypien dinked and dunked his way to a 21/26 (80.8%), 197 yard (7.6 YPA), 1 TD, and 1 INT line. His average depth of target was a laughably low 4.9 yards, and he attempted just 5 passes that traveled more then 10 yards. CB Patrick Surtain played well defensively -- he was targeted just 3 times and he picked off 1 of them. DeShawn Williams had 5 pressures. We won. Let's move on.
Final score: Denver 24, Arizona 15
Tennessee (+3.0) @ LA Chargers
Line closed: LAC -3.0, line remained the same
An offensive snooze fest, the game remained tied at 7 each until Austin Ekeler ran for 3 yard touchdown with 10:28 to go in the 4th, giving the Chargers a 14-7 lead. After 4 drives that collectively consisted of 15 plays and 35 yards, the Titans were able to answer with an 11 play, 74 yard drive that resulted in a Ryan Tannehill rushing touchdown. With just 48 seconds left on the clock, it looked like were heading to OT, but of course a final drive yet again didn't go our way. Justin Herbert brilliantly gained 57 yards passing in 12 seconds, which put the Chargers in field goal range. Cameron Dicker put the 43 yard field goal through the upright as time expired, giving the Chargers the win.
Sides recap: 3-4-1 final. Not great. We had two major line movements toward the model, one big one against us, and the rest were mostly irrelevant. We move on.
Desmond Ridder o165.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): Ridder had 97 yards passing. 97. LOSS -1.13 yards
Justin Fields o154.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): Fields finished with 152 yards. He was injured and had to come out for 1 play, which was a pass play.. if only. LOSS -1.13 units
Zach Wilson o196.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): That's the Lions defense for ya. Wilson finished with 317 yards. WIN +1 unit
D'Andre Swift u27.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Swift had 23 yards receiving. WIN +1 unit
Isiah Pacheco u70.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): Pacheco had 86 yards rushing. LOSS -1.2 units.
Justin Herbert u303.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): See above, Herbert had 57 yards in 12 seconds to end the game. He finished with 313 yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Keenan Allen o6.5 receptions +110 (FanDuel): Keenan had 8 catches. WIN +1.1 units.
Davante Adams o6.5 receptions +110 (FanDuel): Adams finished with 4 catches. LOSS -1 units.
Marquise Brown u4.5 receptions +125 (BetMGM): Marquise Brown had 4 catches. WIN +1.25 units.
Brian Robinson o64.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Robinson had 89 yards. LOSS -1.15 units.
Cam Akers u55.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Akers had 65 yards rushing. LOSS -1.14 units.
Ben Skowronek o29.5 receiving yards -115 (Caesars): Skowronek was injured and finished with 3 yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Props recap: 4-8, -4.7 units. Gross
Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model
Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover
Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants
Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants
Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week
Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week
Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun
Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points
Week 9: Clean Sweep
Week 10: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500
Week 11: Ouch Town, Population Us
Week 12: Look At That, We Won
Week 13: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If You Cover
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Week 12: 4-3
Week 13: 4-3
Week 14: 4-4
Week 15: 3-4-1
Season total: 46-50-2
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units
Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units
Week 14: 8-6, +1.86 units
Week 15: 4-8, -4.7 units
Season total: 83-81, -3.4 units