Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
San Francisco @ Washington (+13.5)
Line closed: SF -14.0, line moved away from the model
It turns out the 49ers are a pretty good football team. The Commanders offensive line, for their part, held up well. Sam Howell averaged 2.89 seconds to throw, but was still kept clean on 69% of dropbacks. Howell took only 1 sack. Not bad.
The problem is everything else for Howell was bad. Really bad. He had 4 turnover worthy throws and earned a 35.3 game grade from PFF. He completed just 60.7% of his passes despite a dink-and-dunk average depth of target (5.9 yards) and gained just 6.0 yards per attempt. The 49ers offense did exactly what we expected them to do against a very beat up Commanders secondary, but we needed more out of Howell.
Final score: San Francisco 27, Washington 10
Result: LOSS
Las Vegas (+3.0) @ Indianapolis
Line closed: IND -3.5, line moved away from the model
With 3:11 to go in the 4th, the Raiders were down 10. Aidan O'Connell then led the Raiders on a 9 play, 75 yard drive that resulted in a 1 yard touchdown pass to DeVante Adams, which resulted in a push for us.
Final score: Indy 23, Las Vegas 20
Result: Push
Detroit (+6.0) @ Dallas
Line closed: DAL -5.0, line moved toward the model
The result of this game was about as controversial as it gets, but none of that mattered to us, taking the Lions as a 6-point road dog.
We were in a good spot, with the Lions down 4 with 2:32 to go. Detroit had the ball, and I figured either they would go down, score, and win the game, or they'd at least be able to eat enough clock where Dallas could then take a knee.
But then Jared Goff decided to throw an interception on his own 26 yard line, giving Dallas the ball in field goal range with arguably the best kicker in the game. 4 plays and 24 seconds later, Dallas did just get, connecting on a 43 yard field goal to put the Lions down 7 with 1:41 to go. Detroit then drove 75 yards down the field, resulting in an Amon-Ra St. Brown touchdown. I'm sure you're all well aware of what happened next -- and if you aren't feel free to google it or click the link above -- but the result was a Cowboys win and a cover for us.
Final score: Dallas 20, Detroit 19
Result: WIN
ATS recap: 1-1-1, we're just losing to the vig out here.
Prop bets:
Dak Prescott u285.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Prescott had an almost safety turn into a 92 yard touchdown pass. That just about sealed our fate. He threw for 345 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Jared Goff u264.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Goff looked prime to go under throughout, but Cowboys played soft defense on the final drive, which allowed him to pass at will. He finished with 271 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Bryce Young o170.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Young had 112 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Kyler Murray u230.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Murray finished with 232 yards. Brutal. Loss -1 unit
Aidan O'Connell o209.5 passing yards -106 (Caesars): O'Connell had 299 yards. WIN +0.94 units
Kyren Williams u94.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Kyren had 87 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Brian Robinson o37.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): Robinson had 44 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Trey McBride u65.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): McBride finished with 48 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Easton Stick o210.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Stick had 220 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Ja'Marr Chase o58.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Chase had 41 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Justin Jefferson o75.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): JJeff had 59 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Tucker Kraft u3.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings): Kraft had 6 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Final tally: 5-7, -2.42 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
Week 13 Recap: Jake Browning Fucks
Week 14 Recap: Monday Madness Decides Our Fate
Week 15 Recap: The Cowboys Sucked
Week 16 Recap: The Raiders Defense Sneaky Doesn't Suck
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 13: 2-3
Week 13: 2-2
Week 14: 2-2
Week 15: 1-2
Week 16: 3-3
Week 17: 1-1-1
Total: 31-33-1
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Week 13: 5-6 -1.21 units
Week 14: 5-7, -2.54 units
Week 15: 3-10, -7.10 units
Week 16: 5-4, +0.66 units
Week 17: 5-7, -2.42 units
Total: 87-94, -8.90 units